Polls show support for Bennett-Lapid alliance slipping as Eisenkot’s party climbs

Together predicted to win at least 15 seats while rival Yashar polls at 20-22 seats, behind ruling Likud; surveys show various potential mergers wouldn’t tip scales for either bloc

The electoral alliance led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid is shedding support as rival opposition party Yashar makes gains, according to a pair of television polls aired Wednesday evening.

Both Channel 13 news and the Kan public broadcaster’s surveys said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party would pick up the most seats if elections were held immediately, receiving 23 and 24 respectively.

The next largest party was predicted to be Yashar, led by former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, which received 20 seats in the Channel 13 survey and 22 seats in the Kan poll.

Trailing Likud and Yashar was Together, a merger between the parties led by Bennet and Lapid. Channel 13 gave Together 15 seats, while Kan gave it 16.

Yisrael Beytenu was the next largest party, receiving 12 and 10 seats respectively in the Channel 13 and Kan surveys.

It was followed in the Channel 13 poll by The Democrats with 10 seats, then far-right Otzma Yehudit with nine, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism with eight each, the majority Arab Hadash-Ta’al with six, far-right Religious Zionism with five and Islamist Ra’am with four.

Kan gave Otzma Yehudit nine seats and the same number to The Democrats, while Shas had eight, UTJ seven, Hadash-Ta’al six, Religious Zionism five and Ra’am four.

Neither poll gave Benny Gantz’s Blue and White enough to pass the four-seat threshold for entry into the Knesset. The fledgling Reservists party led by former minister Yoaz Hendel also was not forecast to make it into the Knesset.

The polls showed neither the current coalition nor the opposition winning enough seats to have a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Parties that back the coalition together had 53 seats to the opposition’s 57, while the remaining ten would be held by Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, the latter of which was part of the Bennett-Lapid ruling coalition during its 18-month period of power in 2021-2202.

The two networks also looked at possible unions between parties.

If Bennett joins with Eisenkot, the united party, under Eisenkot, would win 37 seats, two more than when separate, while Likud would still have 23, Channel 13 predicted.

The opposition under those circumstances would have 58 seats, still short of a majority.

If the Arab parties unite, the current coalition would drop to 50 seats, the opposition would remain at 58 while the alliance of Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would get 12 seats, the network found.

Asked to choose between Netanyahu and Eisenkot as prime minister, 43% want Eisenkot and 39% Netanyahu, according to Channel 13.

However, if it were a choice between Netanyahu and Bennett, 44% want Netanyahu and 41% Bennett.

Asked to choose between Bennett and Eisenkot, 42% preferred Eisenkot and 21% Bennett.

Meanwhile, were Gantz to join Hendel and former Israeli Fire and Rescue Commissioner Dedy Simhi, the party would get seven seats, with Likud dropping to 23, Yashar to 20, and Together to 15, Kan found, though the two blocs would remain at an impasse with neither having a clear route to a ruling majority.

Channel 13 did not provide details about the methodology of its survey, which was conducted by Hamadad. The Kan poll was done by the Kantar Institute and included a sample of 553 people surveyed over the internet, with a 4.2 percent margin of error.

Israel is set to hold national elections no later than October 27.