Rumored ‘Likud B’ party led by Erdan and Edelstein picks up 5 seats in new ToI poll

Potential alliance of Likud defectors would blow new Gantz-Simhi and Hendel-Tropper outfits out of the water, but fail to resolve electoral deadlock, Zman Yisrael survey shows

A new right-wing party led by former Likud ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein would win five Knesset seats if elections were held today, but would eliminate two similar parties and fail to end the electoral stalemate, according to a poll from The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site Zman Yisrael.

The poll, published Thursday, saw 55 of the Knesset’s 120 seats going to Zionist parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 49 to Netanyahu’s Likud and its allies, and 11 to Arab-majority parties, whom some anti-Netanyahu party leaders reject as governing partners.

The survey predicts that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the Zionist opposition would secure a majority of 61 seats even if joined by the so-called “Likud B” party that Erdan and Edelstein are reportedly mulling as a more statesmanlike alternative to the legacy party, ahead of the October 27 election. (The anti-Netanyahu bloc would win 60 seats with the support of “Likud B,” just short of a Knesset majority.)

Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party continued its run atop the poll with 23 seats, down two from its all-time high of 25 in last week’s poll.

Yashar was followed in the Zionist opposition by right-wing former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party, with 14 seats, up one from last week; former defense minister Avigdor Liberman’s hawkish secularist party Yisrael Beytenu, with 10 seats, the same as last week; and former IDF deputy chief Yair Golan’s left-leaning Democrats party, with eight seats, down two from last week.

On Netanyahu’s side, the premier’s own Likud received 20 seats in the poll. Eight seats each went to the Likud’s two ultra-Orthodox allies — the Sephardic Shas, which lost one seat from last week, and the Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism, which stayed the same.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, Netanyahu’s far-right allies, were predicted to receive seven and six seats, respectively, with Ben Gvir losing a seat and Smotrich gaining a seat from last week.

Among Arab-majority parties, the emerging three-way merger of the communist Hadash, secularist Ta’al and nationalist Balad received six seats, while the traditionalist Ra’am received five. Both results were the same as last week.

Failing to pass the electoral threshold were Blue and White, led by former IDF chief Benny Gantz and political newcomer Dedy Simhi, and the new Zionist Home party, led by former ministers Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel.

The two right-leaning factions have not ruled out a government with Netanyahu — like Edelstein and Erdan, but unlike the larger Zionist parties.

If Edelstein and Erdan don’t run, however, Blue and White and Zionist Home would each receive four Knesset seats, after failing in last week’s poll to pass the electoral threshold.

With Blue and White and Zionist Home passing the threshold, Yashar would shrink by two seats to 21, Together would shrink by one seat to 13 and other parties would stay the same. No bloc would secure a majority even if joined by both Blue and White and Zionist Home.

The two recently formed parties have assailed the government’s effort to codify the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service and advocate for a broad Zionist government.

But they have failed to unite because Gantz and Simhi committed to rejecting only Arab parties while Hendel wanted them to also reject ultra-Orthodox parties, a source familiar with the discussions told The Times of Israel last month.

Edelstein announced earlier this month that he was bolting the Likud. The former refusenik, who was once second only to Netanyahu on the Likud slate, had broken with the party over its support for the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption.

Edelstein has since been widely reported to be set to join up with Erdan, who has criticized the government’s conduct on the Haredi draft issue since he completed his term as ambassador to the UN in August 2024.

The Zman Yisrael poll was conducted on July 29-30 by Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel. The sample size was 500 and the margin of error was ±4.4%.