Zman poll has anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc on 60 seats

In 1st, Eisenkot’s party polls even with Bennett’s, in fight to be Netanyahu election rival

Two surveys, one by ToI’s sister site, find Yashar and Together slates would tie, trail Likud if Knesset vote held today; separate poll has Eisenkot pulling ahead

Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party would win as many seats as ex-premier Naftali Bennett’s center-right Together alliance with Yesh Atid if elections were held today, the first time the two opposition factions have polled evenly, according to a pair of opinion surveys released Thursday.

According to the survey published by Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s sister site, both Yashar and Together would pick up 21 Knesset seats, trailing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which was the largest party in the poll with 24 seats.

In the Zman poll, the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc polled at 60 seats in the 120-member Knesset, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc at 50, and two Arab lists holding the balance. The second poll, by Channel 12, put the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc on 59 seats, and the Netanyahu-led bloc at 51.

Eisenkot, a centrist politician boasting a decades-long military career, has been steadily rising in the polls over the past several months, despite efforts by Bennett and his political partner Yair Lapid to rally the opposition behind their alliance.

One of them is likely to shape up as the main rival to Netanyahu in the upcoming Knesset election.

After Together and Yashar in the Zman poll, the next-largest faction was former defense minister Avigdor Liberman’s secularist opposition Yisrael Beytenu party with 10 seats, the same as the Netanyahu-aligned ultra-Orthodox Shas party.

Three parties polled at eight seats: The left-wing Democrats led by Yair Golan, the Haredi United Torah Judaism, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit.

The Islamist Ra’am party and predominantly Arab Hadash-Ta’al were the remaining parties that cleared the electoral threshold in the poll, with five seats apiece.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism, Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, the centrist Reservists and the Arab Balad would all fail to enter the Knesset, though the latter is expected to run on a joint slate with Hadash-Ta’al that doesn’t include Ra’am.

Excluding the Arab parties, which much of the Zionist opposition is averse to allying with in a government coalition, the anti-Netanyahu bloc stands at 60 seats, one short of the 61-seat Knesset majority needed to form a government.

The survey also asked respondents how they would vote if Hadash-Ta’al and Balad run as the Joint List, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism again team up for elections, and Gantz adds former senior general Dedi Simhi to Blue and White.

The seat tally would be as follows: Likud 23, Together 19, Yashar 19, Joint List 9, Otzma Yehudit-Religious Zionism 9, Yisrael Beytenu 9, Shas 9, UTJ 9, The Democrats 7, Ra’am 4 and Blue and White with Dedi Simhi 4.

That outcome would bring Zionist opposition parties opposed to Netanyahu down to 54 seats — not including the non-aligned Gantz and Simhi — while Arab majority factions would together have 13 seats and the Netanyahu-led bloc would go down from 50 to 49.

The Zman Yisrael survey was conducted by Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel and made up of 500 Jewish and Arab respondents, with a 4.4% margin of error.

A separate poll aired by Channel 12 news had Yashar and Together at 20 seats, trailing Likud at 22, followed by The Democrats at 11, Otzma Yehudit at 9, Shas at 9, Yisrael Beytenu at 8, UTJ at 7, Hadash-Ta’al at 5, Ra’am at 5 and Religious Zionism at 4.

With those seat totals, parties opposed to Netanyahu would have 59 seats without Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, short of a majority, and would fall to 58 seats if Hadash-Ta’al reunites with Balad and Simhi joins Blue and White.

The Channel 12 survey was performed by Manu Geva’s Midgam firm, together with iPanel. The poll included 501 participants and has a 4.4% margin of error.

A third poll, published Thursday by Israel Hayom and conducted by the Kantar Group, polled Eisenkot at one seat above Bennett’s party, fashioning the former general as Netanyahu’s main contender.