Progress said made in talks, but deal still a long shot

Trump: ‘A whole civilization will die tonight’ if ultimatum for Iran to open Hormuz expires

Ahead of 8 p.m. Eastern deadline, IRGC threatens to deprive US and its allies of oil and gas for year; Pezeshkian says he and 14 million Iranians are ready to ‘sacrifice their lives’

Hours before his latest ultimatum was set to expire Tuesday night, US President Donald Trump threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if Iran doesn’t agree to his demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran also boosted its threats against the US, as talks nevertheless continued.

“I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social site. “However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

Trump added that “we will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. Forty-seven years of extortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”

In an expletive-laden post on Sunday, Trump warned that the US would attack power plants and bridges in Iran starting Tuesday evening if the Islamic Republic failed to reopen the strait, and on Monday, he said “the entire country can be taken out in one night,” with a plan to destroy “every bridge in Iran.”

Speaking to reporters in Hungary on Tuesday shortly after Trump’s post, US Vice President JD Vance warned that the US has “tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use” against Iran, adding that he was “hopeful” negotiations would avoid them being deployed.

“The United States has largely accomplished its military objectives,” Vance told reporters, adding that “there’s going to be a lot of negotiation between now and then” when the US deadline expires, at midnight GMT between Tuesday and Wednesday.

“They’ve got to know we’ve got tools in our toolkit that we so far haven’t decided to use. The president of the United States can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them if the Iranians don’t change their course of conduct,” Vance added.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on Tuesday that it will deprive the United States and its allies of oil and gas if Washington crosses Tehran’s “red lines,” in a statement carried on state television.

“The Revolutionary Guards once again declare that if the American terrorist army crosses the red lines, our response will go beyond the region,” the statement said.

It said the paramilitary Guards will target infrastructure “to deprive the United States and its allies of oil and gas in the region for years.”

“America’s regional partners should also know that until today, we have exercised great restraint for the sake of good neighborliness and have had some reservations in choosing targets for retaliation, but all these reservations have since been removed,” it added.

And Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that he and 14 million Iranians have declared they will “sacrifice their lives” to defend Iran. Explaining the figure, the Associated Press said that 14 million Iranians had answered Iranian state media and text message campaigns urging people to volunteer to fight.

“More than 14 million brave Iranians have so far declared their readiness to sacrifice their lives to defend Iran. I have also sacrificed my life for Iran, I am, and I will continue to do so,” he wrote on X.

Iran has a population of around 90 million.

Amid the escalating rhetoric on both sides, Qatar on Tuesday warned that the war was moving close to a threshold where it cannot be controlled.

“We have been warning since 2023 that escalation left unchecked will get us into a situation where it cannot be controlled, and we are very close to that point,” said Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari. “This is why we have been urging all parties to find a resolution to find a way of ending this war before it’s too late.”

Al-Ansari said Qatar faced dangers over food, water and environmental security, explaining: “We are still at the threshold of all of these challenges.”

“We hope that we can remain there and we are able to walk back from there to a safer environment. But obviously, we are quite concerned with all that is happening right now.”

A senior Iranian source and two Pakistani sources told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the US continue to exchange messages through Islamabad, though hope remained slim for a breakthrough in the talks.

Tehran will not show flexibility as long as Washington continues to demand its “surrender under pressure,” said the senior Iranian source, who asked not to be named.

The source said Qatar on Monday had conveyed Tehran’s message to the United States and regional countries that if Washington attacks Iran’s power plants, “the entire region and Saudi Arabia will fall into complete darkness with Iran’s retaliatory strikes.”

He also warned that “if the situation gets out of control, Iran’s allies will also close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.”

In addition, two Pakistani sources told Reuters on Tuesday that efforts to facilitate talks between the US and Iran are still ongoing.

One of the sources, a senior security official, said Iran’s overnight strike on Saudi Arabia’s industrial facilities linked to US firms threatened to derail the talks. If Saudi Arabia were to respond to the strikes, the talks would be over, the source said, adding that retaliation could also draw Pakistan into the conflict under its defense pact with Riyadh.

The second source said Iran was “walking on thin ice” and that the next three to four hours were critical for the future of dialogue.

Pakistan has been at the center of negotiations between the US and Iran in recent weeks, acting as the main go-between for proposals shared by both sides, but there has been no sign of a compromise.

“We are in touch with Iranians. They have lately shown flexibility that they could join the talks, but they are at the same time taking hard lines as a prerequisite for any negotiations,” the Pakistani security source said. He added that Islamabad was persuading Tehran to enter negotiations without prior conditions.

Later on Tuesday, Axios reported that some progress had been made in negotiations, but an agreement between the US and Iran still looked to be a long shot.

A US official told the outlet that Washington was originally questioning “can we get there?,” but is now asking “can we get there by 8 o’clock tonight?”

Channel 12 reported that Israel is preparing for a range of scenarios ahead of Trump’s deadline, from a ceasefire or interim framework agreement to a potential expansion of strikes beyond those already carried out by the IDF and the US army.

Officials told the news outlet that if Trump’s deadline expires without a deal, it could open an “extraordinary window of opportunity” to strike Iranian energy, electricity and other national infrastructure sites that have yet to be targeted.

Israel and the US have already coordinated a division of such targets, the report said.