Source says Haredi MKs seem 'closely coordinated' with PM

Vote on dissolving Knesset likely next week as coalition jockeys to control election timing

Likud-led bloc preparing own bid to move vote earlier after Haredi mutiny triggers opposition bill that would bring October election forward, throwing government’s legislative plans into disarray

Both the opposition and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition were preparing competing efforts on Wednesday to dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections.

The maneuvering came a day after the ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction announced that it would push to dissolve the Knesset over the coalition’s failure to pass a draft exemption law for yeshiva students.

Opposition parties submitted dissolution bills on Tuesday and urged Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana to hold a preliminary vote as early as Wednesday, in an effort to capitalize on Degel HaTorah’s announcement.

Ohana, who alone has the authority to accelerate the process, declined to do so, an opposition source familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel on Wednesday.

And in an effort to control both the legislative process and the timing of future elections, the coalition was on Wednesday preparing to submit its own bill to dissolve the Knesset as early as next week, according to Hebrew media reports.

Whether brought forward by the opposition or the coalition, a preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset cannot be held before Monday, and more likely next Wednesday, at the earliest.

Under Knesset procedures, bills must be submitted on Mondays in order to be placed on the plenum agenda that same week. Since the opposition’s dissolution bills were submitted after this week’s deadline, the earliest a preliminary vote could take place is Monday, though Ohana will likely delay the vote until Wednesday next week, when lawmakers typically vote on bills in their preliminary readings.

Even if the bill passes its preliminary reading, it would still need to undergo committee deliberations and clear multiple Knesset readings before becoming law, a process that could take weeks and be further stalled by the coalition, which controls the committees where it would be discussed.

Passage of a preliminary reading alone could still complicate the coalition’s legislative agenda for the remainder of the Knesset term, particularly on election-related initiatives such as lowering the voting age or raising the electoral threshold, both measures the coalition has expressed interest in advancing.

The speed of the process will largely depend on how much pressure the ultra-Orthodox parties place on Netanyahu and his coalition.

“They could tell Netanyahu that if he doesn’t advance the bill, they’ll start voting with the opposition, passing opposition legislation and embarrassing the government until it moves forward,” the source said.

The coalition already removed all its bills from the Knesset plenum’s agenda on Wednesday due to concerns that it did not have a majority following Degel HaTorah’s announcement.

According to the Ynet news site, the move also reflected uncertainty within the coalition over how fellow ultra-Orthodox party Shas would vote, as it has yet to publicly respond to Degel HaTorah’s declaration.

Degel HaTorah is one of two factions, alongside the Hasidic Agudat Yisrael, which comprise the larger United Torah Judaism party. A well-placed Agudat Yisrael source indicated in speaking with The Times of Israel on Tuesday that they will support the dissolution of the Knesset should it come to a vote.

However, despite reports of a deepening crisis between Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties, it remains unclear whether Degel HaTorah’s initial call to dissolve the government and now the coalition’s push to advance its own dissolution legislation reflects a genuine breakdown or a coordinated political maneuver between Netanyahu and the Haredi factions.

Reports indicating that the ultra-Orthodox parties would prefer to back a coalition-sponsored bill to dissolve the Knesset rather than opposition-led legislation have further fueled speculation that the sides may still be coordinating behind the scenes on the timing and terms of any potential elections.

A Knesset source with knowledge of the matter told the Times of Israel on Wednesday that the Haredi parties appear “very closely coordinated with Netanyahu.”

They added that if the opposition comes to believe the Haredi parties may backtrack, or ultimately support a coalition-backed dissolution bill instead, it will likely withdraw its own legislation, since failed Knesset dissolution bills cannot be brought back to a vote for six months.

“There is a genuine crisis of confidence between them, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t coordinating on how and when to dissolve the Knesset in a way that maximizes their political interests,” the source said.

Dr. Assaf Shapira, who leads the Political Reform Program at the Israel Democracy Institute, agreed, adding that this episode is primarily “a struggle over status and framing,” he said.

The Haredi parties want to show their base that they are meaningfully protesting the government’s failure to pass a draft exemption law, even if they have no real intention of toppling the government, he argued, while Netanyahu, though reported to want to delay elections as long as possible, has “a clear interest” in avoiding elections immediately following the anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attacks.

Elections are currently slated for October 27. If lawmakers vote to dissolve the Knesset, elections must be held within five months of the vote. The Haredi parties reportedly favor an election in early September.