A bus with a campaign poster for opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party passes by the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem on October 30, 2022. The poster says: "The 61st seat depends only on you!" (Olivier Ftoussi/Flash90)

Poll: 42% of Likud voters weighing or have decided to back different party in fall

Plurality who voted for Netanyahu’s party in 2022 but won’t or may not this time say chief reason is failure to prevent Oct. 7, followed by efforts to exempt Haredim from army service

by · The Times of Israel

Forty-two percent of Israelis who voted for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party in the previous election are either considering or have decided to back a different party in the fall Knesset elections, according to a Channel 12 news poll broadcast Friday.

The other fifty-eight percent of Israelis who voted for Likud in the previous election said they will do the same at the ballot box, the survey said.

The poll showed 10% of those who backed Likud in 2022 will support the Together slate former prime minister Naftali Bennett formed with Opposition Leader Yair Lapid; 6% will vote for former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party; 4% will back Avigdor Liberman’s secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party; 3% will cast a ballot for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party; 2% will vote for Yoaz Hendel’s right-wing Reservists party; 1% will support Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party; and 1% will cast a vote for Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism party.

Eight percent of former Likud voters said they were unsure who they will vote for and 6% plan to sit out the election.

Among Likud voters who are either considering or have decided not to vote for Netanyahu’s party once again, 37% said it’s because of the failure to prevent Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack; 23% said it’s because of the legislation that the government is trying to pass granting blanket exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students; 14% said because of Netanyahu’s personal conduct; 13% said it’s because of divisions in Israeli society; and 13% said they’re unsure.

Asked whether Netanyahu should run in the next election, 64% of those who voted Likud last elections said yes, while 30% said he should retire.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara (not pictured) cast their vote during the elections for the Likud Central Committee, at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem, November 25, 2025. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

Looking ahead, 10% said former Mossad chief Yossi Yohen should lead Likud after Netanyahu, 9% said Economy Minister Nir Barkat, 8% said Defense Minister Israel Katz, 7% said Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, 6% said former strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer, 5% said Justice Minister Amir Ohana, 3% said Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter and 2% said Transportation Minister Miri Regev; 45% said none of the above.

Those polled were cool toward Netanyahu’s far-right, firebrand son Yair, with 67% saying he should not be on Likud’s electoral slate, of versus 17% who said yes.

Asked if they’re satisfied with the conduct of Likud’s current slate of lawmakers, 55% said they were not, compared to 38% who said they are.

Asked which party leader best represents Likud’s values, 39% said Netanyahu, 37% said former prime minister Menachem Begin, 10% said they were unsure, 9% said former prime minister Yitzhak Shamir and 5% said former prime minister Ariel Sharon.

The survey was conducted for the network by pollster Manu Geva. It didn’t say how many people were polled or provide a margin of error.

Left to right: Yisrael Beytenu chair Avigdor Liberman leads a faction meeting at the Knesset on July 14, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90); Opposition Leader Yair Lapid leads a faction meeting at the Knesset, in Jerusalem, on August 4, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90); Former prime minister Naftali Bennett visits at the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City, May 26, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90); Former MK Gadi Eisenkot holds a press conference after announcing his resignation from the Knesset and his departure from the National Unity party, in Tel Aviv, July 1, 2025. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)

On Thursday, Channel 12 published polling on how Israelis would vote if elections were held today that showed no major shifts between the blocs, with Zionist anti-Netanyahu parties forecast to win 59 seats — two shorts of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The survey said factions that comprise the current coalition would receive 51 seats, while Arab parties would pick up 10.

The survey also polled a potential alliance between Eisenkot and Liberman, who if they run together would receive 25 seats, the same as Likud and one ahead of together. The tie-up between Eisenkot and Liberman boosted the Zionist opposition to 60 seats, still one shy of a majority, though it was forecast to drop to 55 seats if MK Chili Tropper — who announced he was leaving Blue and White this week — runs the Reservists.

A poll by Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s sister Hebrew-language site, found that a merger between Eisenkot and Liberman would make their party the largest with 26 seats, one more than Likud and two more than Together, though similarly no bloc would have a majority.