Netanyahu’s Likud takes hit in polls, which show most Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire

With dip in support for ruling party, TV surveys show Zionist factions opposed to PM closer to, but still short of, Knesset majority; 79% of respondents back continued fighting in Lebanon

Polls released Thursday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party losing votes on the heels of an unpopular temporary ceasefire with Iran that US President Donald Trump announced.

With the Likud’s dip, Zionist parties opposed to Netanyahu would close in but still narrowly fail to secure a majority of the Knesset’s 120 seats if elections were held today, according to polls from the Kan public broadcaster, Channel 12 and Channel 13. Parliamentary elections are set to be held in October at the latest.

A Kan poll gave the Zionist anti-Netanyahu parties 59 seats, a Channel 12 poll gave them 60, and a Channel 13 poll gave them 55.

The Kan poll had Likud at 25 seats, down from 28 last week, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit got 10 seats, up from eight last week. Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party Shas stayed steady at nine seats, while Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism got seven, down from eight last week. Likud’s final coalition partner, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, failed to pass the electoral threshold.

The Kan poll also awarded 19 seats — the same as last week — to right-wing former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s party, tentatively called Bennett 2026. Another 14 seats, up from 13 last week, went to former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party. The Democrats, a left-leaning alliance led by former IDF deputy chief Yair Golan, got 11 seats, up from nine last week, while veteran MK Avigdor Liberman’s hawkish Yisrael Beytenu party got nine, up from eight last week.

Rounding out the Zionist opposition parties, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party got six seats, down from seven last week, while fellow centrist party Blue and White, led by former IDF chief Benny Gantz, failed to clear the electoral threshold.

Finally, the Kan poll awarded five seats, down from six last week, to the alliance of secularist Arab faction Ta’al and the Arab-majority communist party Hadash, while Islamic party Ra’am stayed steady at five seats.

In total, the Kan poll awarded 51 seats to Netanyahu’s coalition and 59 seats to the Zionist opposition parties, meaning each bloc would have to rely on either defectors from the other bloc or the support of Arab parties to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority government.

The Channel 12 poll also showed Netanyahu’s Likud getting 25 seats, down from 27 in the same network’s poll last week, while Bennett’s party would get 22 seats, up from 20 a week ago.

Eisenkot’s party also picked up an additional seat, rising to 13, while The Democrats dropped to ten seats from 11 last week.

Other parties would hold steady with nine seats each for Shas, Yisrael Beytenu and Otzma Yehudit, seven seats for UTJ, six for Yesh Atid and five each for Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, while Religious Zionism and Blue and White failed again to cross the electoral threshold.

In total, the Channel 12 poll awarded 60 seats to the Zionist opposition parties and 50 seats to Netanyahu’s coalition — both short of the requisite 61.

In the Channel 13 poll, Likud dropped by three to 22 seats; Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism each picked up one seat, scoring ten and five seats, respectively; and Shas and UTJ both held steady with ten and seven seats, respectively, giving Netanyahu’s coalition a total of 54 seats.

In the Zionist opposition bloc, Bennett’s party rose by three seats, picking up 21, and The Democrats rose by one, picking up eight seats, while Yashar and Yesh Atid each lost one seat, scoring 12 and six seats, respectively. Yisrael Beytenu stayed steady at eight seats, while Blue and White again failed to pass the electoral threshold, giving the Zionist opposition parties a total of 55 seats.

Among the Arab parties, Hadash-Ta’al would win six seats, down from seven last week, and Ra’am would hold steady at five.

Channel 13 also asked respondents how they would vote if Ra’am, Hadash, Ta’al, and the smaller nationalist party Balad ran together as the Joint List, as they have done in the past.

In such a scenario, the Joint List would become the third largest party, with sixteen seats. Likud would shrink to 20 and Religious Zionism would rise to six, giving Netanyahu’s coalition a total of 53 seats, and Bennett’s party would shrink to 20 while Eisenkot’s and Golan’s parties would drop to eleven and seven, respectively, giving the Zionist opposition bloc a total of 51 seats.

The Arab parties pledged earlier this year to work to reestablish the Joint List, and have dismissed recent Hebrew media reports that talks broke down, despite little signs of progress.

Majorities oppose Iran truce, support continued fighting in Lebanon

Majorities in all three polls disapproved of the Iran truce, with 56% of respondents to Kan, 53% of respondents to Channel 12 and 51% of respondents to Channel 13 saying they opposed the two-week ceasefire.

Meanwhile, just 25% of respondents to Kan, 30% of respondents to Channel 12, and 32% of respondents to Channel 13, expressed support for the ceasefire, while other respondents said they didn’t know.

Zionist opposition parties have blasted Netanyahu for failing to secure the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, restriction of its ballistic missiles and a halt to its support for terrorist proxies before the ceasefire was announced.

According to Channel 12, 62% of respondents who voted for opposition parties disapproved of the ceasefire — even higher than the 57% who opposed it among coalition voters.

The network often uses the term “opposition” to refer just to Zionist opposition parties, and it was unclear if the 62% figure included Arab party voters, 88% of whom were said to support the ceasefire while just 3% opposed it.

The three polls also showed a majority of respondents were unconvinced that Israel and the US had won the war they launched on Iran on February 28.

Asked whether the US and Israel had won the war, 58% of respondents to Kan said no, 25% said yes, and the rest said they didn’t know.

Asked by Channel 12 whether Israel and the US, Iran or neither had won the war, 30% said Israel and the US, 19% said Iran and 40% said neither, while the rest said they didn’t know.

Posed a similar question by Channel 13, without the “neither” option, 33% of respondents said Israel and the US won the war, 28% said Iran won and 39% said they didn’t know.

Channel 12 also asked respondents whether Israel should continue attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. A large majority, 79%, supported the continued strikes in Lebanon, while 13% opposed them and the rest said they didn’t know.

Respondents who supported the continued attacks included 92% of coalition voters and 83% of opposition voters, with the same ambiguity regarding the inclusion of Arab party voters, 61% of whom opposed the continued strikes, while 25% of supported them.

Israel and the US have denied that the Iran truce includes Lebanon, despite mediator Pakistan’s statements to the contrary. Israel has carried out massive airstrikes and pushed troops farther into Lebanon after Hezbollah, on March 2, launched its first rocket attack on Israel since the November 2024 ceasefire deal.

Kan said its survey was conducted on Thursday by the Kantar firm among an internet sample of 552 respondents with a 4.2% margin of error.

Channel 12 said its survey was conducted by the Midgam polling firm and the iPanel sampling firm among 505 respondents with a 4.4% margin of error.

Channel 13 did not provide information on its survey methodology.