Texas Senate race puts North Texas suburbs in focus ahead of early voting

Some former Republican leaders say they will back James Talarico or leave the race blank rather than vote for Ken Paxton.

The North Texas suburbs are emerging as a crucial battleground in the Texas Senate race, with early voting for the midterm elections less than 30 days away and signs of cracks among some traditionally Republican voters.

The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is the largest media market in Texas, putting added attention on suburban voters in Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties as Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat state lawmaker James Talarico compete for support.

Republicans have maintained their governing coalition for a generation in part by attracting a large share of conservative-leaning independents. This year, however, some former Republican leaders in North Texas are publicly breaking with the party's Senate candidate.

The Texas Tribune published an article Thursday featuring roughly a dozen former local Republican leaders who said on the record that they would vote for Talarico — their first time voting for a Democrat — or leave the Senate race blank.

Among them is former Southlake Mayor John Huffman, who told NBC 5 that he could not get past concerns about Paxton's character, including his highly publicized divorce and past corruption allegations that Paxton has largely defeated.

Scott Braddock, editor of the Quorum Report Capitol newsletter, said the suburbs have previously shown their ability to shift even when Republicans remain competitive statewide.

“In 2018, you had Senator Cruz in this race, and Democrats still picked up 12 seats in the Texas House, two seats in the Texas Senate and two seats in the Congressional delegation," said Scott Braddock with Quorum Report.

Braddock said business and industry groups are circulating polling showing Democrats outperforming Republicans in the suburbs.

Collin County has also seen major corporate relocations bring an influx of new and more diverse workers to Texas. Braddock said changing populations are creating opportunities for both parties across North Texas.

"The Northeast part of Tarrant where Southlake is. The populations are just completely different year after year, you know, in election after election. And there are real opportunities for Republicans and Democrats," Braddock said.

Paxton's campaign has publicly focused its efforts on defending the suburbs, including an appeal to Republican-leaning women.

“Suburban moms want someone who will actually fight the people putting their kids in harm’s way: Big Food, Big Pharma, and Big Tech,” a Paxton campaign spokesperson said.

Outside groups are spending more than $100 million in Texas to help Paxton fend off Talarico. That effort includes thousands of mailers supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico.

The mailers were paid for by the No Going Back PAC, a new group with millions of dollars coming from President Trump's organization, according to The New York Times.

This story was originally reported for broadcast by NBC DFW. AI tools helped convert the story into a digital article, and an NBC DFW journalist edited it again before publication.