A “wake up call” for Texas Republicans in Tarrant County

Texas Senate District 9 has been Republican since 1991. How did the Democrat pull off an upset?

Tarrant County delivered a stunner over the weekend, electing a Democratic union leader in a deep-red district that President Trump won by 17 points. A lot of politicos around the country are wondering how it happened.

The union leader who's a mechanic at Lockheed Martin, Rehmet, won with 57 percent of the vote, defeating the conservative activist and executive at the Patriot Mobile cell phone provider, Leigh Wambsganss. Rehmet's message on affordability, access to unions, and public school funding connected in this January 31st runoff.

There was a lot of finger-pointing on the Republican side on Monday after this huge swing. In short, the Democrats built a winning coalition while the Republicans did not.

Christian conservative activist Wambsganss said Saturday, Republican voters did not turn out in the special election January runoff. The results were a “wake-up call,” she said.

“Tonight is a wakeup call for Republicans in Tarrant County, Texas, and the nation. The Democrats were energized. Too many Republicans stayed home," she wrote.

Others saw more local issues at play, including Wambsganss's key role in bitter culture-war fights on local school boards over race and gender, leading to a high-stakes decision over whether to split Keller ISD into two school districts. Parent Laney Hawes told NBC Five on Monday that many are still not over it.

“Over the four years, a lot more than hurt feelings, really, the agenda they pushed and the politicization of our children's schools has wreaked havoc on our community and on our schools," said Hawes.

The winner on Saturday, Rehmet, told me on Monday that those fights and the effort to use public school dollars on private and home schools in the legislature brought people to his side.

“It was a massive point of contention, especially regarding this race. This was about the things I was hearing at the doors and on the phones; we really saw that people were frustrated, even angry, that the vouchers are going to be pushed through," said Rehmet.

Additionally, the candidate who lost in the November primary, John Huffman, wrote online that Wambsganss did not do enough outreach to his voters.

"This runoff was marked by failed opportunities to unify. There was no outreach to the 19,000 voters who supported our campaign in November. Nor did Leigh's campaign reach out to me until days before early voting began, leaving no time to unify Republicans or broaden the coalition. When she and I finally did meet, she ended the conversation almost as soon as it started," wrote Huffman.

Wambsganss's political consultant, Allen Blakemore, responded to Huffman online.

"What a joke! His ignorance and arrogance about voter contact were on display in 2024 when he lost his congressional primary, and again last November – as demonstrated by his pitiful showing," wrote Blakemore, "Leigh did reach out to every Republican voter in SD 9. Unfortunately, about 61,000 Republicans did not turn out, and she lost by 14,000 votes."

Republican pollster Ross Hunt said those independent and moderate voters made the difference.

“Republicans didn't lose because of low turnout. They lost because almost all the independent voters who turned out to vote and some of the Republican voters voted for the Democratic candidate," said Hunt.

Hunt's analysis says 51 percent of the voters in Senate District 9 live in Fort Worth. Only 4 percent live in Southlake, where Wambsganss lives. Rehmet's working-class message connected better than Wambsganss's culture-war history.

Then observers note a national discussion about the Trump Administration's use of immigration officials after several deadly shootings of American citizens in Minnesota, affordability issues, and historical trends. All tilted the scales against Wambsganss.

While the national trends favor Democrats at the moment, local politics, specific candidates, and coalition building set the stage for an upset Saturday night.

But remember, these two face each other again in November for the full four-year term. Then, more partisan voters are expected to show up, giving Wambsganss an advantage. But it appears it will be more competitive and closely watched once again.