Democrats in position to flip 5-15 House seats, retake majority, per Cook Political Report
by Lindsey McPherson · The Washington TimesDemocrats are poised to flip five to 15 House seats in the Nov. 3 midterm elections and take control of the chamber from Republicans, according to a new analysis.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election prognosticator, shifted its ratings in 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday.
Erin Covey, the publication’s editor for U.S. House races, said Democrats are likely to end up with a House majority with 220 to 230 seats, and that range could shift further in their favor “if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding.”
“Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November,” she wrote in the publication.
Democrats celebrated CPR’s analysis, which bolsters their internal confidence about their prospects this cycle.
“The floor is falling out from underneath House Republicans,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Courtney Rice said. “After two years of raising costs and lying to the American people, they’ve all but assured that they will lose the majority in November.”
More than half of CPR’s 15 new rating shifts are Republican-favored seats that remain that way, just slightly more competitive.
The more alarming shifts for Republicans are the races where they no longer hold an edge.
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CPR shifted three races from a “lean Republican” rating to toss-up status.
One of those is Texas’ 15th Congressional District, where two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz is running for reelection against Democrat Bobby Pulido, a well-known Mexican/country musician.
“Right now, South Texas is with us, and today independent experts confirmed what we’ve been feeling here on the ground,” Mr. Pulido said. “Monica De La Cruz has had two terms to fight for this community, and instead she gutted our healthcare, raised our grocery and gas bills, and never once held a town hall to answer for it. That ends in November.”
The other races shifting away from Republicans to toss-ups are open seats in Florida’s 22nd District and North Carolina’s 11th District. If Democrats win both, the former would be a hold and the latter a flip.
CPR also shifted two races from the toss-up category to “Lean Democratic,” including an open seat in Arizona’s 1st District that is held by a Republican.
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In New Jersey’s 7th District, CPR gives Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, an edge over two-term GOP Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., who missed votes for several months this year while undergoing treatment for severe depression.
Six races shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” including open seats in Montana’s 1st District and Texas’ 35th District.
Four Republican incumbents are considered in danger: Reps. Jeff Crank in Colorado’s 5th District, Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th District, Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th District and Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st District.
CPR shifted Republican Rep. John McGuire’s race in Virginia’s 5th District from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as well as three open races in Nevada’s 2nd District, New York’s 21st District and Texas’ 9th District.
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Lindsey McPherson
lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com
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