Don’t take plummeting crime rates for granted
by Carrie Lukas · The Washington TimesOPINION:
Five thousand Americans are still living, working and loving their families because of policy changes that have brought down crime rates to historic lows.
It is difficult to comprehend the one-year, 18% drop in the homicide rate from 2024 to 2025. Still, that dry statistic adds up to thousands of families — the equivalent of nearly one 9/11 — spared from mourning that would have been unavoidable if the Biden-era approach to crime and border policies had been in place these past 18 months.
For Americans, it may be like recovering from a head cold. As soon as the symptoms clear, so do our memories. The absence of a runny nose, foggy head and body aches rarely creates gratitude. Instead, it is quickly accepted as our natural state.
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Today, few Americans remember how border surges devastated communities and transformed many of our cities’ hotels and even schools into housing shelters. Just two years ago, our newsfeed was filled with stories of rampant violent crime and gangs on scooters snatching purses.
I remember being warned not to stop if someone hit me from behind while driving in downtown Washington. Keep driving even if you get hit, I was told, because ramming vehicles was a tactic used by the city’s carjackers.
The exodus of about 2 million people from our country — some deported, more self-deporting, according to the Department of Homeland Security — and the plummeting of crime rates are not a coincidence. Although the majority of those who entered our country illegally likely came in pursuit of a better life, the minority of criminals who took advantage of our open border caused tremendous damage.
Americans breathed a sigh of relief when this crisis subsided, and they now enjoy the return of normalcy. Yet this present state of relative stability and community safety must not be taken for granted. It was the result of policy choices, not happenstance, and policy choices can be reversed by new leadership.
Had the Biden-era policies stayed in place — a porous border, tolerance of crime and an FBI dedicated to policing the practices of traditionalist Catholics rather than catching violent gang members — our crime rate would likely have remained at 2024 levels.
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That would have meant thousands more murders and tens of thousands of additional victims of violent crimes. The statistics suggest that about half of those additional murder victims would have been Black and about 1,000 would have been younger than 18.
Most victims would have been men, but nearly 1,000 would have been women. There would also have been about 8,500 more rape victims, about 1,000 more victims of carjackings and more than 100,000 additional burglaries.
No one knows who those victims would have been and which families would be mourning. The victims could have included your children or your best friend; they could have included mine.
We do know that those with lower incomes who live in urban areas are more likely to be victims of these crimes, so they benefited most from the policies that created safer communities and a safer country. Safer streets also particularly benefit women, who, data shows, avoid going out at night or using public transportation when crime rates are high.
Crime leaves scars that never fully heal. The rise in lawlessness and violent crime witnessed under the Biden administration was not bad luck. It was the result of decisions that made crime easier to perpetrate and harder to stop.
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Americans should consider that the decline in crime may not be a return to normal, but merely a respite from it. Normal could be the open borders and rampant lawlessness and violence that America endured for years. It depends on the decisions that we voters make.
Making a good choice begins with recognizing that we have a choice to make — one with lasting consequences.
• Carrie Lukas is president of Independent Women. Follow her on X at @carrielukas.