Republicans aren’t trying to make voters like the GOP. They’re making them dislike Democrats
by Seth McLaughlin · The Washington TimesRepublicans are leaning hard into a simple idea this fall: the best defense is a political takedown.
Democrat James Talarico’s campaign got an early warning this month when a Texas South University poll showed his unfavorable rating climbing to 50 % in his Senate race against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The shift lines up with the GOP’s broader strategy of addition by erosion, the belief that tearing down Democrats will lift up Republicans in a tough political climate.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is viewed more favorably in her bid for a sixth term in the Senate against Democrat Troy Jackson, according to a recent New York Times survey.
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The same poll found that Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed is leading the Michigan Senate race, but also is facing more voters who view him “very unfavorable” than former Rep. Mike Rogers. And GOP insiders in Ohio say internal polling shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s favorable rating is underwater — and still sinking — as he tries to unseat Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
Chris LaCivita, an architect of President Trump’s 2024 win and the infamous “Swift Boat” ads that helped sink John Kerry’s 2004 bid, said this week these are the data points he is keeping close tabs on. He told Breitbart News that favorable‑unfavorable ratings are a clear sign of where a race is headed, and that campaigns “spend so much time beating the hell out of their opponent because the higher the negative, the higher the anti‑vote becomes.”
Whether that’s wishful thinking is an open question for Republicans, who are fighting midterm history, Mr. Trump’s low approval ratings, and voter frustration over the economy, the cost of living and the war in Iran.
If Mr. LaCivita is right, it’s bad news for Democrats — including Mr. Talarico.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Republicans have built their strategy around driving up Mr. Talarico’s unfavorable numbers because “it’s going to be a lot easier to raise Talarico’s unfavorables than to raise Paxton’s favorables.”
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The idea is to give GOP voters who are undecided or leaning toward Mr. Talarico “a reason to reconsider,” especially if both candidates start to look flawed. Rising negatives could also draw out voters who might otherwise stay home.
“They’re not turning out to vote for Ken Paxton — they’re turning out to vote against James Talarico,” Mr. Jones said.
MAGA Inc. recently started running an ad that opens with a narrator saying, “James Talarico is weird — very weird.” The spot highlights past remarks by Mr. Talarico, including that there are six biological sexes, that “Jesus Christ Himself was a radical feminist,” and that “God is nonbinary.” The narrator closes with: “Liberal weirdo James Talarico. Too loco for Texas.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is also on the air. In Alaska, it’s attacking former Rep. Mary Peltola, who is running against Sen. Dan Sullivan, for voting with President Biden “95 percent of the time,” calling her “a complete sellout” and “just a liberal in Alaska clothes.”
In Ohio, the group is airing a spot warning that Mr. Brown backed “sex changes for minors.” In Maine, they are warning that Mr. Jackson has a track record of raising taxes and enriching his family as a state lawmaker, and in Michigan it is targeting Mr. El‑Sayed, claiming he wants to “defund the police,” release criminals onto the streets, and he pals around with people who hate the U.S.
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The SLF website is packed with more than two dozen attack ads — a sign of how central negative advertising has become to the GOP’s strategy this cycle.
Some Republicans worry their party’s barrage is coming too late. Robert Cahaly, chief pollster at the Atlanta‑based Trafalgar Group, said Republicans are playing catch‑up after letting Democratic candidates define themselves over the summer.
“You can’t go back in time and match what they did in August because a lot of the Democratic candidates have been unanswered on TV for months,” he said. “It would have been a lot cheaper to do it before people knew who they were.”
He said early impressions get baked in, making them harder — and more expensive — to shake. Early voting has already begun in some states.
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Mr. Cahaly blamed campaigns that struggled to raise money and leaned too heavily on the Trump fundraising operation. He’s particularly concerned about South Carolina, where a late, contested special election has left Sen. Darline Graham, sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, with limited funds. Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, is challenging her in a race that has flown under the radar.
The Cook Political Report rates it likely Republican, but Mr. Cahaly considers it a jump ball.
A GOP operative working on the midterm effort said Republicans hope the negative movement against Democrats is clear by mid‑October. The operative said the strategy is data‑driven: “In general, everything we are spending money on, our data shows, will hurt the Democrats’ favorables. We are not shooting in the dark when we decide where and how much money to spend on these ads.”
Democrats say the barrage will be drowned out by voters’ opposition to the war in Iran and frustration with lingering inflation and gas prices — pressure points that have led more Republicans to call for ending the war.
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And Democrats are throwing their own punches. The New York Times reported Tuesday that Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, has begun airing ads in Texas on Mr. Talarico’s behalf, signaling Democrats expect a long, expensive fight. Their first ad accuses Mr. Paxton of giving a convicted sex offender a sweetheart deal, noting the criminal’s lawyer represented one of Mr. Paxton’s biggest donors.
The cycle historically tilts against the sitting president’s party, and Mr. Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 % in a Wall Street Journal poll released last week — the lowest of any president heading into midterms in Journal polling dating to 1990.
Still, Republicans are positioned to flood the airwaves. AdImpact’s latest breakdown shows the GOP dominating both spending and future reservations across the Senate map — from Texas and Ohio to Michigan and Maine — with North Carolina standing out as the only race where Democrats have more ad time banked.
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Seth McLaughlin
smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com
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