How to break Iran’s terrorist regime
by Clifford D. May · The Washington TimesOPINION:
President Trump has stated repeatedly that Iran’s rulers must never be permitted to obtain nuclear weapons, but he has not clearly explained why, so let me put it bluntly: They would use them.
Iran’s rulers are self-proclaimed Islamic revolutionaries and the world’s leading sponsors of terrorism. For 47 years, they have vowed “Death to America!” If they obtain nuclear warheads and missiles that could deliver them to American cities, why would they refrain?
If you think they would not dare because, in retaliation, we would strike back with our own nukes, think again.
These are jihadis who, for decades, have been murdering their own people, including dissidents, religious minorities and women who have failed to cover their hair as the mullahs prefer.
This January alone, they slaughtered tens of thousands of Iranians for the “crime” of peacefully protesting.
The guys with the guns in Iran call themselves the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — not the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. This follows the ideology — or, more precisely, the theology — of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Khomeini believed that patriotism is a form of idolatry. “Islam is against nationality,” he told his followers. He also was quoted — in a passage some historians dispute but which certainly captures the spirit of his beliefs — as saying he would be content for Iran to “go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.”
Let us be honest: Would any American leader really answer a nuclear 9/11 against us or our allies by slaughtering vast numbers of innocent Iranians who despise the tyrants who rule them? What good would it do?
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A nuclear first-strike is not the only danger, and it may not even be the most likely. Iran’s rulers could simply threaten, terrorize and subjugate their neighbors, attack American assets and issue demands under a nuclear umbrella.
Perhaps they would insist that all Americans — “imperialist” soldiers, “colonialist” diplomats and “capitalist” businessmen — retreat from the Middle East. Or maybe they would champion the “right” of American Muslims to live according to Shariah, Islamic law.
Would we not decide against striking Iran in any scenario if there is even a minimal chance that a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile could evade our missile defenses and reduce an American city to rubble?
Iran’s rulers are allied with the dictatorships in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang, the last of which acquired nukes after a much-ballyhooed “diplomatic solution” failed.
Imagine all four members of this axis of aggressors issuing ultimatums backed by nuclear threats. Can you not hear the arguments for capitulation?
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The isolationists and “restrainers” on both the left and right contend that Mr. Trump was wrong to respond seriously to the decades of low-intensity warfare that the Tehran regime has been waging against America.
Many maintain that President Obama’s nuclear deal, which gave the regime a patient pathway to an industrial-size nuclear program, was good enough. Wasn’t everything hunky-dory during the Biden administration?
The answer is no, because Iran’s rulers were making steady progress toward the development of nuclear weapons in subterranean fortresses while amassing an enormous arsenal of missiles and drones — enough to put the regime into what Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called “a zone of immunity.”
The 12-day war last year and this year’s Operation Epic Fury decimated that arsenal and set back the regime’s nuclear weapons program from just a few weeks to as much as three years. That was progress, but it was not mission accomplished.
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We have been slow to grasp the impact of “cheap tech” and the proliferation of drones on the battle space. We were wrong to believe that our small supply of exquisite and expensive munitions would shock and awe Iran’s rulers, making them desperate for a deal.
The American bases in the Middle East, located dangerously close to Iran, should long ago have received more resources to defend themselves. They have sustained hundreds of rocket, missile and drone attacks — not just over the past two years, but for a decade.
So what’s next? The Pentagon has no doubt given Mr. Trump options to consider. I am sure he would like a silver bullet, but history suggests that those are usually in short supply.
The military experts I have consulted suggest a more realistic strategy: Maintain the blockade, which denies the regime revenue, dries up its supply lines and will soon force its troops to battle pro bono. Continue airstrikes against military targets, especially weapons depots and factories. There cannot be an infinite number of them.
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Airports, government buildings, banks and communications facilities used by Iran’s military should be added to the target list, as should the military commanders and government officials responsible for the mass murders of innocent Iranians.
None of the above requires “boots on the ground,” but naval units do need to keep open a channel for commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
That international waterway must not be ceded to Tehran. If it is, what would stop the Houthis, a Tehran proxy, from controlling the Bab-el-Mandeb, the exit from the Red Sea, or the Chinese Communist Party from claiming the Taiwan Strait?
America’s allies, who need resources from the Persian Gulf more than we do, should help enforce freedom of navigation, a fundamental principle of international law. American diplomats may need to twist some arms. That is why they are paid the big bucks.
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U.S. economic and military power, coupled with ironclad determination — and no more ceasefires, please — can break the regime’s back.
How might its collapse come about? I am reminded of the Ernest Hemingway character who described the way he went broke: “Gradually, then suddenly.”
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a columnist for The Washington Times and host of the “Foreign Podicy” podcast.
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