California runoff tests GOP’s bid to reform California

The polls ahead of California’s jungle primary for governor Tuesday show Republican Steve Hilton will likely secure one of two spots on the November ballot following his insurgent campaign to turn the state around and end years of liberal governance.

But his place on the ballot is not a done deal and will put to the test his pitch to reform the deep blue state after 16 years of Democratic rule.

Mr. Hilton, eyeing new poll numbers showing his victory at risk, urged voters on Monday to drop their support of fellow Republican candidate Chad Bianco and coalesce behind him in Tuesday’s primary.

Mr. Hilton, who in many earlier polls had been leading the race or placing solidly in second, is suddenly tied with or losing to Democrat billionaire Tom Steyer, which could push him out of the number-two spot and eliminate the sole Republican from the November ballot.

“It’s a very, very tight race. Three people, competing for two spots in the general election,” Mr. Hilton said, leveling with his followers in a video posted Monday. “Tom Steyer is catching up.”

While the race centers on a few top candidates, the field is huge.

Voters will choose among 60 candidates in the governor’s race. Election officials must also count mail-in ballots that voters began sending in weeks ago.

The state will “probably not” determine the winners in the race on Tuesday night, California Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber told KCRA News. “It is possible, but we’ve got 60 candidates. … It is not likely that we will know that night for sure.”

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Mr. Hilton has been at or near the top of the heap throughout his campaign to lower taxes, reduce government spending and slash burdensome regulations.

He told The Washington Times he believes Californians are “sick of it and they want change,” following one-party Democratic rule that has led to higher costs, higher unemployment, a massive homeless crisis, terrible schools, increasing poverty and a housing shortage.

Mr. Hilton’s reform message has reverberated through the Los Angeles mayor’s race, where a wave of voter discontent following the disastrous response to the Palisades fire has elevated reality TV star Spence Pratt, giving him a shot at winning a spot on the November ballot in Tuesday’s jungle primary for that race.

But California is, after all, a blue state and like Mr. Pratt, Mr. Hilton is facing an electorate skewed toward Democratic voters, who outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.

Mr. Hilton told his social media followers Monday he is the only viable Republican running in the primary and if Mr. Bianco’s backers don’t switch their vote to him, the state is guaranteed to elect another Democrat in November.

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“It’s about the future of California, and if we don’t get a Republican in the top two, we have no chance for change,” Mr. Hilton said.

The latest polls show California voters may be on the verge of rejecting Mr. Hilton’s change agenda.

Mr. Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, has sunk to single-digit support from a position at or near the top of the polls just a few weeks ago.

Democrat and Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, previously wallowing in very low single digits, has ascended to the lead over all candidates, followed by Mr. Hilton and a closely trailing Mr. Steyer.

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At least one poll shows Mr. Steyer, an environmental activist and the most liberal candidate in the race, narrowly winning the number-two spot behind Mr. Becerra. Such an outcome would end any chance of electing the first GOP governor in two decades.

An Emerson College poll of likely California voters taken May 27-28 indicated Mr. Hilton may or may not make it onto November’s ballot.

It showed Mr. Becerra leading with 28% of the vote, followed by Mr. Steyer with 22% and Mr. Hilton close behind with 21%.

“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

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He said Mr. Hilton will benefit from eroding support for Mr. Bianco, while Mr. Steyer needs to mobilize younger voters “while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support for Steyer.”

Democrats are eager for the primary to be over. Earlier polls showed Mr. Bianco and Mr. Hilton leading and lackluster Democrats facing the possibility of being locked out of the November ballot entirely. Such a bombshell scenario would have guaranteed a GOP governor would succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited and eyeing a White House run in 2028.

At one point, state party chair Rusty Hicks publicized internal polls hoping to nudge poorly performing Democrats, Mr. Becerra among them, out of the race.

“Certainly we are ready for this primary to be over,” Mr. Hicks told KCRA News this week.

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The race and its low-polling Democrats were jolted by the April sexual misconduct scandal that forced the top-performing Democratic candidate, former Rep. Eric Swalwell, to drop out of the governor’s race and leave Congress.

His departure cleared a path for Mr. Becerra, the only candidate to have previously won statewide office.

Mr. Becerra, who served as California Attorney General from 2017 to 2021, has had to defend his leadership abilities amid a scandal involving his former chief of staff, Deputy Attorney General Sean McCluskie.

McCluskie was convicted of conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud and stealing $225,000 from Becerra’s campaign war chest. While Mr. Becerra was not implicated in the crime and said he knew nothing about it, the matter has raised questions about his competence.

His low poll numbers nonetheless rose quickly once Mr. Swalwell quit the race.

At a May 30 rally in Long Beach, Mr. Becerra, son of Mexican immigrants who he said arrived here with $12, pledged to fight the Trump administration’s deportations of illegal immigrants and the president’s social welfare spending reforms.

“As your governor, I will not bend a knee to Trump’s trillion-dollar assault on Medicaid,” he said.

He also promised to declare California’s housing shortage “a state of emergency” and to steer the state, now $497 billion in debt, toward a universal health care system.

He referred to Mr. Steyer as “a billionaire,” and Mr. Hilton as “Trump’s hand-picked candidate.”

Mr. Steyer, who called himself “a huge climate guy,” has shattered spending records by pouring $195 million of his fortune into campaign advertising, according to the firm AdImpact, which tracks political ads.

Mr. Steyer pledged to lower costs for all Californians while enacting an environmental justice agenda.

He’s pitched a plan to tax the “greedy” corporations and billionaires and build a million homes while forcing power companies to lower electricity bills by 25%. He also promises to bar U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the agency that carries out deportations, from California.

He attacked Mr. Becerra’s campaign for receiving support from Chevron and Pacific Gas and Electric Company.

“Corporations buy politicians like Xavier Becerra to protect their profits,” he said.

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Susan Ferrechio

sferrechio@washingtontimes.com

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