What the Iranian people need from the world now: Patience

OPINION:

After nearly half a century, the ayatollahs are finally facing the prospect of a world in which they will no longer be oppressing or massacring the citizens of Iran or serving as the fundamentalist fountainhead of global terrorism.

Now that the U.S.-Israeli military strikes are rattling the foundations of the regime, the one thing the Iranian people need most is the world’s patience. Time is needed to create the conditions for the people of Iran to overthrow the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regain control of their country.

At the same time, the regime’s ability to attack other countries must be demolished via the elimination of its nuclear and ballistic missile production capabilities and the destruction of as many missiles and missile launchers as possible.

The U.S.-Israeli strikes could take an estimated four to six weeks, which is likely to put significant pressure on Iran’s military and economy. A war of this length will carry indisputable costs. Human lives have been lost. Since the fighting began Feb. 28, Iran has attacked more than a dozen countries directly or indirectly.

Military bases and other sites, including Amazon Web Services data centers in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, have sustained damage. Oil prices have surged above $110 a barrel, and the global economy is taking a hit.

Human losses are heartbreaking, and economic volatility is disruptive. Ultimately, however, these are short-term costs outweighed by the massive long-term gains for the Iranian people, the Middle East and the world at large.

To understand the scope of the positive change the war can be expected to make, we must examine the shadow the Iranian regime has cast over the world for nearly 50 years.

Iran has had a hand in sponsoring terrorism since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, both directly and through proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. In 1979, Iran seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held more than 50 American diplomats hostage for 444 days.

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In the 1980s, hundreds of Americans were killed in Hezbollah’s car bombings and hijacked flights. The U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania were aided and abetted by the Iranian government and Hezbollah. Many were killed by Iran-backed terrorist attacks in Israel in the 1990s and early 2000s, and Iran-backed militias killed more than 600 U.S. military personnel in Iraq from 2003 to 2011.

The Oct. 7, 2023, massacre of Israelis that set off the reshaping of the Middle East was carried out by another of Iran’s proxies: Hamas.

Regional stability can be expected to flourish once the Iranian regime is no longer in power and therefore no longer spearheading global terrorism.

The Iranian people have the opportunity for a brighter future if they can transition to a country that isn’t throttled by a fundamentalist dictatorship that rules through fear and oppression. With Iran’s hold on proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas weakening, the people of Lebanon and the Gaza Strip also have an increased chance of achieving peace and stability.

As the Persian Gulf states come to recognize that they are on the same side as Israel, a post-ayatollah Middle East could have an expansion of peace agreements such as the Abraham Accords.

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Beyond the region, global terrorism is likely to diminish along with the power and purse strings of one of its biggest sponsors. What’s more, the war may weaken U.S. rival China, which is dependent on Iranian oil.

The road ahead will not be easy, and the costs of the conflict are real. The alternative, allowing the Islamic republic to continue its decades-old campaign of terrorism, oppression and nuclear ambition, carries far greater risks.

For the Iranian people who have suffered under the ayatollahs’ boot, for the citizens of a region held hostage by proxy warfare and for a world weary of state-sponsored terrorism, the stakes could not be higher. Patience now may well be the price of a more stable and peaceful tomorrow.

• Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired Israeli brigadier general, leads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He is a former head of the research division of the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence directorate and director general of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs.

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