Iran war brings new danger as Bushehr nuclear plant poses catastrophic risk

OPINION:

While the war against the Iranian regime is raging, a potentially urgent matter has not been addressed or even evoked by journalists, experts and political leaders. It concerns the Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran’s oldest and main nuclear facility.

If any sabotage, bombing, accident or earthquake affects the plant, then the consequences would be cataclysmic.

Over the past dozen years, the only ones concerned about the risk to the nuclear facility, just outside the city of Bushehr, were the Persian Gulf countries neighboring Iran. The war could affect not only the nuclear plant but also the metropolis of more than 1 million people. Bushehr, which sits in one of the world’s most active seismic regions at the intersection of three tectonic plates, is prone to earthquakes. In 2013, just before the plant became operational, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake hit Bushehr.

Building a nuclear plant in the area was pure madness.

Nonetheless, with Germany’s cooperation, construction of the plant began in 1975 and stopped in 1979, just before the Islamic Revolution. Work resumed in 1996, this time with Russia leading the construction.

The technical task at hand was extremely arduous because of the challenge of using both German and Russian technology. Still, the plant finally opened in 2013.

The most striking thing about the Bushehr plant is that it is anything but safe. It is built with a 50-year-old design that has shown its limitations, and its emergency coolant system is 40 years old and based on two different technologies.

Finally, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the plant’s staff is not properly trained to face any kind of accident. Because Iran is the only nuclear-operating country that has not signed any of the major international safety conventions, the concern about a possible accident is more than warranted.

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Just last week, the head of Russia’s nuclear corporation, Rosatom, warned that the situation at Bushehr was deteriorating and at risk of attacks.

Gulf countries are even more concerned because most of their main cities are closer to Bushehr than Tehran. Kuwait City is just 175 miles away, Manama, 187 miles; Doha, 254 miles; and Dubai, 373 miles. Furthermore, Iran’s major population centers would be much less affected than its neighbors because the Zagros Mountains — about 550 miles long and 150 miles wide, mostly located in Iran — would act as a shield.

The speed and the direction of the winds, northwesterly, could push a potential radioactive leak toward the neighboring countries and the Strait of Hormuz. Any accident at the Bushehr plant would have far more repercussions for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar than Iran.

An accident at Bushehr could result in thousands of casualties, with hundreds of thousands more people potentially dying later from cancer. Because these countries lack water resources and rely mostly on seawater, a leak at Bushehr could mean a catastrophe of unheard-of proportions.

The U.S. has a large, permanent military presence in the Gulf (Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE), and with the additional troops and armada currently fighting the war against the Iranian regime, the U.S. would be very deeply affected by a nuclear accident.

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As long as the de facto Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, the most damaging consequence of radioactive leaks there would be the long-lasting disappearance of 25% of the world’s oil and gas supply and 5% of global trade.

Washington must try to mitigate the risk by avoiding hitting nearby targets and pushing for international safety inspections of the plant and a possible total shutdown of the nuclear facility.

• Olivier Guitta is managing director of GlobalStrat, a geopolitical risk consulting firm.