Why the 2026 primary season has been rough for congressional incumbents
by Lindsey McPherson · The Washington TimesCongressional incumbents this primary cycle are getting pounded by a perfect storm of redistricting-based competition, Democrats pushing for generational change and President Trump wading into GOP contests.
The latter has proved the most powerful at this point in the 2026 cycle, as Trump-backed challengers have ousted three of the six members of Congress who have lost their primaries.
“The president’s intervention in primaries is very unusual, and frankly, very effective for a sitting president,” election analyst Kyle Kondik told The Washington Times.
Mr. Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas “were in trouble anyway, but certainly Trump weighing in against them didn’t really help.”
Mr. Cassidy and Mr. Cornyn, who have respectively served two and four terms, are the first elected incumbents to lose a Senate primary in 14 years.
Since 2012, Senate Republicans have lost only eight incumbents total to electoral defeats. Half of those came in 2020 when Democrats regained control of the chamber and Joseph R. Biden beat Mr. Trump in the presidential election.
Democrats are looking to oust three GOP incumbents this cycle: Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, John Husted of Ohio and Dan Sullivan of Alaska.
It would take a blue wave to knock out all three, but if that happened, the combined five GOP general and primary losses would be the most Senate Republicans ousted since 2008. Five GOP senators also lost their seats that year.
Advertisement Advertisement
Senate Democrats are only in danger of losing two incumbents, one in a primary and one in the general.
Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, is challenging Sen. Edward J. Markey, 79, in the Massachusetts Democratic primary on a platform of generational change.
Mr. Markey is leading by 5 points in the most recent poll. The primary is Sept. 1.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has raised the most money of any Senate candidate this cycle, is the only Democratic incumbent in danger of losing in the general as others from competitive states opted to retire instead of run for reelection.
In the House, the average number of incumbents defeated in primaries over the past 40 election cycles is 6.5, and the median is 5, according to Crystal Ball’s data analysis.
Advertisement Advertisement
This year will hit the median, if not the average.
So far, four incumbents – two Republicans and two Democrats – have lost, but that number could double as the rest of the primary season unfolds.
Seven-term Kentucky GOP Rep. Thomas Massie was ousted by a Trump-backed challenger.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a four-term Texas Republican, lost a right-wing challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth in the 2nd District.
Advertisement Advertisement
Mr. Trump opted against endorsing in that race, despite backing all other House GOP incumbents in Texas.
Two Texas Democrats, Reps. Al Green and Julie Johnson, suffered defeats a few months later in the state’s primary runoff election.
Redistricting was the culprit in Mr. Green’s case, as the Republican-redrawn map moved Mr. Green’s 9th District eastward into Republican territory.
Most of Mr. Green’s south Houston constituency was moved into the 18th District, represented by Rep. Christian Menefee, creating an incumbent matchup that showed Democrats’ desire for generational change.
Advertisement Advertisement
Mr. Green, a 78-year-old in his 11th term, lost overwhelmingly to the newcomer 40 years his junior. Mr. Menefee, 38, was elected in a February special election to replace Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died last year.
Ms. Johnson, a first-term House member, avoided a redistricting-forced matchup against fellow Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey after the new map effectively merged their Dallas-Fort Worth area districts.
Mr. Veasey decided not to run, but Ms. Johnson’s predecessor, Colin Allred, entered the race after dropping his Senate bid, the reason he did not run for reelection to the House in 2024.
Mr. Allred prevailed over Ms. Johnson, who became the fourth House incumbent to lose this year.
Advertisement Advertisement
A fifth incumbent is guaranteed to go in California as two Republicans, Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert, face off in the 40th District.
The Democrat-led redistricting in the state made Mr. Calvert’s 41st District more blue and shifted much of his GOP base into Ms. Kim’s 40th District.
Californians head to the polls on Tuesday, but the state has an open primary system where candidates all run on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
That means Ms. Kim and Mr. Calvert could both survive until November, but one of them will not be returning to Congress next year.
A handful of Democratic incumbents are also facing tough primaries this summer.
Two are coming up on June 23 when New Yorkers and Marylanders head to the polls.
New York Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman faces a left-wing challenge in the 10th District from former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who is backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani and leading in recent polls.
First-term Maryland Democratic Rep. April McClain Delaney is facing a primary challenge from her Sixth District predecessor, David Trone, who ran for Senate in 2024 but lost the primary to Angela Alsobrooks.
August primaries could also see some more incumbent upsets.
First-term Rep. Wesley Bell, Missouri Democrat, is trying to prevent his progressive predecessor Cori Bush from making a comeback in the 1st District. The Missouri primary is Aug. 4.
A week later, on Aug. 11, Connecticut Rep. John B. Larson will face off against Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, who has pulled ahead of him in the most recent poll.
Mr. Bronin, who will turn 47 in June, is running on a platform of generational change against the 14-term incumbent. Mr. Larson turns 78 in July.
Contact the author
Lindsey McPherson
lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com
Follow author updates Follow Click to follow. Manage followed authors