Russia’s ‘gray zone’ pressure is galvanizing NATO allies
by John T. Seward · The Washington TimesNATO members have become more united in pushing back against Russian sabotage and other dangerous “gray zone” threats confronting the alliance, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said in an exclusive interview.
Mr. Budrys, the top diplomat for a crucial frontline NATO state, cited a recent incident at Germany’s Leipzig airport as one that brought Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics into clear focus. Officials discovered drones strapped with explosives at the airport last month in what Western investigators believe was likely an attempt to destroy cargo plane deliveries to Ukraine.
Such gray zone threats, often involving espionage or sabotage, are intentionally below the perceived threshold to invoke a direct, forceful military response and collectively push NATO into action. The low-cost operations are meant to disrupt the alliance, analysts say, and fuel public hesitation on key decisions such as whether to provide more military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Mr. Budrys said those Russian actions are galvanizing NATO, but that more must be done.
“There is so much work now to do. Politically, the top layer, that has to change,” he told The Washington Times ahead of this week’s United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
“We had this awareness among politicians in the Baltic countries and Nordic countries,” he said. “Further to the West, in Europe, there was some reluctance to admit that this is happening, or that they are also responsible with their decisions to prevent this from happening.”
Mr. Budrys said U.S.-European counterintelligence cooperation helps to “prevent some of the plots” attempted by the Kremlin.
“Now I see this shift, especially after the attempts to use the explosives,” he said, pointing to the recent plot at the Leipzig airport. “We have to respond to Russia politically and asymmetrically, otherwise it won’t stop.”
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Analysts at the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats said that Russia’s actions have evolved and gotten more aggressive. The Russians, specialists say, have moved from attacks on infrastructure or supplies for Ukraine to more lethal attacks that could kill civilians.
Attacks like the Leipzig airport incident or recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland — both suspected to be examples of sabotage by Russia-aligned actors — have blurred the line between gray zone activities and traditional warfare.
Mr. Budrys cautioned that preventing escalation and holding back a response is “what the Russians are betting on.”
“They think that they can use this gray zone, a bit below Article 5,” he said. “It’s a very cheap way for them to be causing trouble, because we aren’t reacting.”
Article 5 of the NATO charter says an attack on one member nation is considered an attack on all of them. It’s been invoked only once: After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S.
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Russia’s tactics
Lithuania has been at the center of rapidly rising Russia-NATO tensions. Last week, NATO jets shot down a suspected Russian drone in Lithuanian airspace. It was the latest in a string of suspected Russian drones moving into NATO’s airspace in what analysts generally believe is an attempt by the Kremlin to probe the alliance’s willingness to fight back.
At the same time, Russia’s hybrid tactics are accelerating and fueling what some observers view as a new, 21st-century Cold War.
Operations conducted by Russia’s Federal Security Service — known as the FSB and the modern Russian agency that inherited the Cold War’s KGB tactics — can cost “two or three thousand euros” Mr. Budrys said, a fairly inexpensive way to create havoc. The Russian military intelligence services — colloquially known by their old Soviet name, the “Main Intelligence Directorate,” or GRU — are also routinely blamed for the inexpensive sabotage operations.
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While it may be cost-effective, it’s also a necessary step for members of the Russian security services. In 2022, many members of both Russian security services were expelled from the European Union, which hindered Russia’s ability to coordinate intelligence operations on the ground. More modern operations have taken their place, with cryptocurrency exchanges happening over the messaging app Telegram, according to regional intelligence sources.
Teija Tiilikainen, the director of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, said that the center is seeing a drastic uptick in more lethal attempts by Russia to sow discord.
“It all changed when something unexpected started to happen: China’s rise and China’s cooperation with Russia,” Ms. Tiilikainen said. “China’s willingness to support Russia’s warfare against Ukraine and China’s willingness to become the leading power in the world, they see it as hugely beneficial to support Russian warfare because they have common interests.”
The goal of Russian sabotage plots is more than just destroying materials bound for Ukraine, she said. The older KGB-style approach is “to subvert, undermine, manipulate public opinion, manipulate the information space” and impact the actual resources allies have available to them.
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“So this is about the struggle for global leadership and the norms in the global order. There is a lot at stake,” Ms. Tiilikainen said. “They want to change the global balance of power.”
Russia’s current approach centers on using attempted assassinations, sabotage and other impactful events, all of which keep Russian President Vladimir Putin at the forefront of global security discussions, according to Eitvydas Bajarunas, the former Lithuanian ambassador to Russia
“For Putin’s image, the tough statements from NATO are great because his people see the president is respected,” Mr. Bajarunas said in an interview. “So actually by saying ’Mr. Putin we are concerned,’ it is just pouring more oil on the fire. Russians are happy, saying ’Finally we see we have a president who is respected.’”
There is evidence to support the idea that tangible action by NATO, not just rhetoric, will bring results. NATO’s Operation Baltic Sentry, in which NATO patrol vessels pushed into the Baltic Sea, seemed to slow down the targeting of communications, gas, and other undersea infrastructure in the area. While some of those problems were attributed to negligence, leadership in the region attributed some of them to Russia.
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The mindset behind Russian operations, Mr. Bajarunas said, is to use every option and lever at their disposal to push their narrative forward. Meanwhile, many of the countries that have been outspoken about Russia’s actions have been mostly reactive.
He pointed to Russian oligarchs living comfortably outside Russia as an indication that some nations have not yet been pushed past their breaking point by Russian hybrid warfare.
Mr. Budrys, the Lithuanian foreign minister, also urged NATO states to be “tough” with Russia. His comments came just as President Trump signed into law a bill giving him power to put aggressive new economic sanctions on Russia and its trading partners, including a 100% tariff on goods from nations that buy Russian oil and gas.
“You have to show you have red lines and you will defend them,” Mr. Budrys said. “You have to be tough with them because they do not respect anything that is soft and they will push until you doubt.”
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John T. Seward
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