Last year’s Ede heath fire prompts Netherlands to create national wildfire risk center

A major heath fire in Ede, Gelderland, caused last year by a training grenade from the defense ministry, along with recurring summer wildfires at crowded campgrounds, is driving the creation of a new national center in the Netherlands designed to map and predict wildfire risk, Trouw reports.

The initiative brings together the KNMI, the national fire service, the Netherlands Institute for Public Safety (NIPV), Staatsbosbeheer and the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature. The goal is to use data-driven models to identify wildfire risks earlier and improve coordination so authorities can respond faster.

Officials say the effort responds to a pattern of about 600 wildfires per year since 2017, many occurring in heathland areas where dry vegetation ignites easily. Fire services also report seasonal spikes in spring, with additional increases in summer, especially at campgrounds where large numbers of people stay.

The new national center for wildfire management will focus on combining terrain data, weather conditions and vegetation levels into predictive dashboards for emergency services and policymakers.

Lone Mokkenstorm, a climate scientist at the KNMI, said wildfire behavior depends on a combination of three key factors: terrain, fuel and meteorology. “How does the landscape look, what is growing there, and what type of weather occurs? In areas with a lot of dry vegetation — such as heathlands and dunes — fire can spread quickly,” Mokkenstorm said.

She said fuel conditions are decisive in determining risk. “The fuel is crucial. The more dry twigs, grass and shrubs there are, the greater the chance that a small spark develops into a fire.”

Weather patterns further increase the danger. “If there is less rain, more sunshine, and rising temperatures, this combination can cause plants to dry out faster and catch fire more easily. The wind then determines the direction and speed of the fire. Especially in the southeast of the Netherlands, fires can develop unexpectedly quickly under such conditions.”

Despite the risks, Mokkenstorm noted that fire can also contribute to ecological renewal. Following the Ede heath fire last year, new vegetation emerged on the site, with some heath growing back stronger and healthier.

The Ede fire has been described by fire officials as a wake-up call. Brian Verhoeven, team leader of nature fire analysts at the fire service, pointed to operational strain. “One large fire is already a challenge, but what if two or three break out at the same time?” he said, highlighting limited capacity and difficult choices emergency services may face during simultaneous incidents.

Verhoeven said wildfire prevention is not solely the responsibility of firefighters, noting that Staatsbosbeheer plays a key role as a land manager in maintaining and controlling access to natural areas.

Under the new initiative, researchers working for the Ministry of Agriculture are developing predictive models that estimate wildfire risk using variables such as temperature, wind and humidity.

KNMI scientist Jouke de Baar said the center will focus on translating these variables into usable forecasts. “In this center, we look at whether, based on temperature, wind and humidity, there is a high chance of fire,” he said.

Those assessments will be compiled into dashboards intended to help emergency services and policymakers set priorities more quickly. De Baar emphasized the limits of prediction. “We never know for sure whether a fire will actually break out that day, but in this way we can intervene in time.”