College Basketball

2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Has UConn Locked Up the Final No. 1 Seed?

27 Feb 2026, 19:22 · FOX Sports

As the calendar flips toward March, the NCAA Tournament picture has started to crystallize.

For weeks, the prevailing belief across men's college basketball has been simple: A trio of No. 1 seeds are essentially spoken for. Duke, Michigan and Arizona have looked like clear-cut top seeds. That left one final No. 1 seed dangling — a debate to be settled over the season’s closing stretch.

Perhaps not anymore.

On Wednesday night, UConn flexed its muscles with a 72-40 demolition of St. John's, snapping a 13-game winning streak for the Red Storm and delivering the most lopsided loss of the Rick Pitino era in Queens.

With that performance, UConn made a powerful case for securing the fourth and final No. 1 seed as March Madness looms.

Is the race truly over? Or is there one more twist before Selection Sunday?

FOX Sports' bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy has his latest NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections.

EAST REGION

SOUTH REGION

MIDWEST REGION

WEST REGION

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy's projections, Indiana, TCU, Santa Clara and VCU are the last four teams in the tournament, while Auburn, San Diego State, Virginia Tech and USC are the first four out.

As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten and ACC have nine teams each. The Big 12 has eight teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the A-10 has two teams.

Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.

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