Russian invasion of NATO country ‘highly unlikely’ but cannot be ruled out: Danish spy agency

COPENHAGEN - The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said on Sept 24 that the risk of Russian military action against NATO countries was growing and an outright invasion was “highly unlikely” but possible.

European countries have been on high alert for any Russian interference, with fears that Moscow could target Kyiv’s Western backers as the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine drags on into its fifth year.

“There is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia,” Thomas Ahrenkiel, the head of the DDIS, told a press conference at which he presented an updated assessment of the threat from Russia.

He said that the agency still considered it “highly unlikely that Russia would see any interest in invading a NATO country, but we cannot rule it out”.

In the assessment, the agency said that Russia would likely carry out more so-called “hybrid attacks” against targets in the West.

It noted that in the past such attacks had “mainly been aimed at creating fear and weakening public support for aid to Ukraine”.

But they had now started to include actions meant to stop support from reaching Ukraine, such as sabotage against defence companies or railway transports carrying military equipment, the agency said.

The DDIS said it thought Russia would intensify such attacks, which could also include “destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions”.

The agency also said there was a low risk of a limited military attack even if the war in Ukraine continued, as an attempt to redirect European resources away from Ukraine.

“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the agency said.

However, the DDIS also noted that “a build-up of forces would require several months of preparation and will be difficult to conceal.”

Ahrenkiel also stressed that although “Russia’s increased willingness to take risks has consequences for the security situation in Denmark”, notably through hybrid attacks, this does not mean that Russia is going to attack the Scandinavian country.

“We do not expect a conventional Russian military attack against Denmark,” he stressed. AFP