Leinster need to be sharper as Ulster seek rare Aviva win

TIS THE SEASON to meticulously watch players’ minutes and try manage resources accordingly across a busy run of URC fixtures.

Put yourself in the shoes of Ulster head coach Richie Murphy. Tonight his team travel down to Dublin to take on Leinster at Aviva Stadium [KO 7.45pm, TG4/Premier Sports 1], before games against Connacht (27 December, away) and Munster (2 January, home). They head into that three-game run fourth in the table, three points behind third-place Munster, with a game in hand on all of the top three. 

Three games, and 15 possible points on offer. The table could have a very different look to it by the time Ulster are out the other side and gearing up for a return to the Challenge Cup.

With two away games to negotiate Murphy’s challenge becomes even more interesting. Do you frontload for one and choose one to rotate, or try strike a balance between the two. Interestingly, Murphy has decided to throw most of his key man at Leinster tonight, the game which would generally be viewed as the least winnable of the three. 

You don’t do this is you don’t feel you can get something from the game, and it’s a risky decision. A loss here, without a losing bonus point, increases the pressure on next week in Galway, a game that is far from a given. For all their progress this season, Ulster have still only won twice on the road in the URC in 2025 (v Dragons in March and Sharks, October), so victory in Dublin would be genuine milestone. Ulster’s last win over Leinster at Lansdowne Road came when it was still called Lansdowne Road, back in 1989, before many of their current squad were even born.

Maybe tonight is the night, because this Ulster team can trouble a Leinster side who are yet to fully hit their straps this season. The return of Stuart McCloskey, who hasn’t played since returning from Ireland duty in November, is significant. The centre was in superb form before injury cut his November short. 

McCloskey joins an experienced backline, led by Ulster’s two young half-backs, Jack Murphy and Nathan Doak, and the province have played some of the sharpest attacking rugby in the league this season. Yet the pack potentially holds greater intrigue. Ulster now have more power up front, with Juarno Augustus getting a good run of games into his legs and loosehead Angus Bell, who could be a transformative signing, starting for the first time.

The strength of this Ulster team should serve to sharpen Leinster, too. Last weekend’s win in Leicester was another one of those error-laded displays that have become a norm for Leo Cullen’s men, but there can be huge value in winning hard on the road. 

In Welford Road Leinster were limited to just two tries and saw passes miss targets, kicks sail into touch and tackles fail to connect. Concerning, maybe, but it could also be viewed that you just need one or two of those moments to stick for a game to take on a different complexion. Cullen certainly seemed to feel that way as he lamented Tommy O’Brien’s early chalked-off score.

Advertisement

Cullen’s team travel to Thomond Park on the 27th before hosting Connacht in the new year. Leinster, sixth, can afford to rest a minibus full of Ireland internationals tonight, and still their team is loaded with Test quality.

That is most telling on the Leinster bench, where Dan Sheehan, Paddy McCarthy and Tadhg Furlong serve as the front row replacements, and Joe McCarthy will be bristling to enter the action. Those four players alone could swing the game on their introduction, and the two benches might well be where the winning and losing of this game happens.

Other points of interest include a rare start for Charlie Tector at 12 – having started just once, and come off the bench once, so far this season. The Wexford man will be keen to look at home alongside midfield partner Rieko Ioane, who is in the squad for the third straight game since arriving in Dublin this month. Joshua Kenny gets another shot on the wing and Ciarán Frawley is an interesting selection at fullback. The Skerries native has had some impressive games in the 12 shirt this season, but starts with 15 on his back for the first time since April.

Those little tweaks and rotations are something Leinster have managed impressively over the years. But this season, so far, feels different. Leinster hope they are simply finding their feet after a disjointed start to their campaign, given the heavy load of players busy across the Lions and Ireland windows. 

Ulster still look up against it, but will take to the pitch believing they can head back to Belfast with a statement win to their name.

LEINSTER: Ciarán Frawley; Joshua Kenny, Rieko Ioane, Charlie Tector, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Luke McGrath; Jack Boyle, Gus McCarthy, Rabah Slimani; Brian Deeny, James Ryan; Alex Soroka, Scott Penny, Jack Conan (capt).

Replacements: Dan Sheehan, Paddy McCarthy, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, Max Deegan, Fintan Gunne, Harry Byrne, Ruben Moloney.

ULSTER: Jacob Stockdale; Rob Baloucoune, Jude Postlethwaite, Stuart McCloskey, Werner Kok; Jack Murphy, Nathan Doak; Angus Bell, Tom Stewart, Tom O’Toole; Harry Sheridan, Charlie Irvine; David McCann, Nick Timoney (capt), Juarno Augustus.

Replacements: John Andrew, Sam Crean, Scott Wilson, Joe Hopes, Bryn Ward, Conor McKee, Jake Flannery, Ethan McIlroy.

Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)