Appalachian State vs. South Alabama prediction, odds: 2024 college football Week 4 picks by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Thursday's South Alabama Jaguars vs. App. State Mountaineers matchup 10,000 times

Fresh off a record-setting performance last week, the South Alabama Jaguars clash with the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the Sun Belt opener for both teams on Thursday night. South Alabama set school and Sun Belt records for most points in a game with an 87-10 win over Northwestern State last Thursday, while App. State downed East Carolina 21-19. The Jaguars (1-2) tied for second in the Sun Belt West with Texas State and Arkansas State at 4-4 in 2023, and were 7-6 overall. The Mountaineers (2-1), who placed second in the Sun Belt East at 6-2 a year ago, finished 9-5 overall.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, N.C. Appalachian State holds a 4-1 series edge, and has won the last four meetings, including a 31-7 win in Boone in 2021. The Mountaineers are 7-point favorites in the latest South Alabama vs. Appalachian State odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 64. Before making any Appalachian State vs. South Alabama picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks and is off to a 5-2 start on over/under picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on South Alabama vs. Appalachian State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for the game: 

• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State spread: Appalachian State -7
• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State over/under: 64 points
• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State money line: Appalachian State -271, South Alabama +217
• SA: The Jaguars have hit the game total over in eight of their last 13 games (+2.50 units)
• APS: The Mountaineers have hit the game total under in nine of their last 14 games (+3.50 units)
• South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back Appalachian State

Senior quarterback Joey Aguilar has been on fire to start the season, throwing for 300 or more yards in each of the Mountaineers' two wins. In a 38-10 win over East Tennessee State, he completed 22 of 36 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns. At East Carolina on Saturday, he was 32 of 47 passing (68.1%) for 424 yards and two scores. He was also picked off twice. Last season for the Mountaineers, Aguilar led the offense by passing for 3,757 yards and 33 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions for a 151.6 rating.

Senior wide receiver Kaedin Robinson is one of several weapons the Mountaineers feature on offense. In three games this season, he has 18 receptions for 290 yards (16.1 average), including a long of 47 yards. He has had two 100-plus-yard receiving games this season, including a 129-yard performance on seven catches in the win at East Carolina. He had eight receptions in the opener against East Tennessee State. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back South Alabama

There was no stopping the Jaguars offense last week as they rolled up 620 total yards. Redshirt freshman quarterback Gio Lopez played just one half, but still completed 15 of 19 passes (78.9%) for 257 yards and four touchdowns. He threw for 432 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-38 loss to North Texas on Aug. 31. In parts of two seasons for South Alabama, Lopez has completed 82 of 129 passes (63.6%) for 1,164 yards and 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions.

Senior receiver Jamaal Pritchett has been the Jaguars' top target. He has 20 receptions for 287 yards (14.4 average) and three TDs. He has caught a touchdown pass in all three games this year. In the opening game loss to North Texas, Pritchett caught 10 passes for 197 yards and one touchdown. In three seasons at South Alabama, he has 79 receptions for 1,194 yards (15.1 average) and 11 TDs. See which team to pick here.

How to make South Alabama vs. Appalachian State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins South Alabama vs. Appalachian State, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the South Alabama vs. Appalachian State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.