Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 4, 2024: Dodge this heavy favorite

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 4 NFL survivor picks

The Minnesota Vikings are unbeaten, but should you consider them when you make your Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks? Sam Darnold has entered the NFL MVP conversation, as the Vikings have toppled opponents three weeks in a row. However, they will face an opportunistic Green Bay Packers team that has notched back-to-back wins with backup quarterback Malik Willis. There is also a possibility that Jordan Love (questionable) returns in Week 4 after leaving Week 1 with a knee injury, and the Packers are 2.5-point favorites at home in the latest Week 4 NFL odds.

These teams have traded wins over the last few seasons, so neither is a lock to come out on top on Sunday. The safer bet could be to look at other teams in your NFL knockout pool picks. Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10.5, 40.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. The Patriots may have just been blown out by the New York Jets, 24-3, but they were a formidable foe in Weeks 1 and 2 and could put up a fight against an injury-riddled 49ers team.

New England most notably upset the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, holding Joe Burrow to 164 passing yards with no touchdowns. It won't be as easy containing Brock Purdy, who threw for nearly 300 yards in Week 3 without Deebo Samuel or George Kittle as targets. The 49ers still have plenty of weapons to get back in the win column, but the Patriots' defense is expected to keep this game close on the road. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.