What's next for Yankees? Juan Soto is the priority, but questions loom about Aaron Boone, Gerrit Cole, payroll

The Yankees have plenty of questions to address after losing to the Dodgers in the 2024 World Series

For the first time in 15 years, the New York Yankees reached the World Series. And for the 15th consecutive season, the Yankees failed to win it all. The Yankees were defeated in the World Series by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team the Yankees should be but aren't. They're not as good as the Dodgers at developing players, identifying trade and free-agent targets, running the bases, positioning defenders, or a host of other things.

Aaron Judge had a miserable World Series -- 4 for 18 (.222) in the five games and one home run that was followed up by one costly error -- and a miserable postseason in general. He is not the reason the Yankees lost to the Dodgers, merely the biggest. Judge will turn 33 in April and Gerrit Cole turned 34 in September. The clock is ticking on the Cole/Judge core to win a championship and, frankly, the Yankees may never have a better chance to win a title with those two than they did in 2024. It was a down year in the American League. You can't expect that to be a repeat occurrence.

So now the Yankees head into the offseason and will try to do the same thing they failed to do in the previous 14 offseasons: Figure out a way to get over the hump and build a team that actually wins a championship, not simply has an opportunity to play for one. Here are five questions the Yankees have to ask themselves after being sent home by the Dodgers.

1. How do they convince Soto to stay?

Juan Soto hit .288/.419/.569 in the playoffs. Judge carried the Yankees during the regular season, Giancarlo Stanton carried them in the postseason, and Soto carried them all year. At this point, calling Soto a once-in-a-generation hitter is underselling his ability. He's more like a once-in-a-lifetime hitter. One who's shown you he can rise to the moment and perform under the brightest lights. He's also a magnetic personality whose value transcends what he does on the field. Soto sells tickets, sells merchandise, drives television ratings and page views and boosts ad revenue. He is a franchise player in every way.

The Yankees can convince Soto to stay by offering him the most money. I mean, duh. That's obvious. But, as we've seen the last few offseasons, these elite tippy-top-of-the-market free agents -- think Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc. -- wind up getting multiple offers in the same range. The money will be there no matter what. The team that gets Soto will be the team that best sells him on the organization and their future, and also offers a boatload of money.

From the outside, it appeared Soto genuinely enjoyed his time with the Yankees and playing with Judge, and the Yankees did have a 10-month head start on the sell job. He knows the organization now. Knows his teammates, knows the market, knows the division, knows the travel schedule, knows the fan base, knows all that. Losing the World Series left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. That's just the way it goes. Other than with money, how do the Yankees erase that and convince Soto this is where he belongs?

2. Is payroll coming down? Really?

Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner began complaining about payroll back in May -- "I'm gonna be honest, payrolls at the levels we're at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially," he said -- and while that could be the usual ballyaching from the ownership class, the belief is the Yankees will indeed reduce payroll in 2025. How much? That is unclear. But it is expected to come down. For reference, here are 2024's top competitive balance tax (CBT) payrolls, per FanGraphs:

1. New York Mets: $357 million
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: $334 million
3. New York Yankees: $313 million
4. Atlanta Braves: $277 million
5. Philadelphia Phillies: $263 million

Given the Yankees' CBT status, that $313 million payroll will come with a $60 million CBT bill, give or take. That's $373 million all-in, which is enormous. It's also not unprecedented (the Mets paid $475 million between payroll and CBT last year), and revenue estimates suggest the Yankees are only middle of the pack in terms of revenue spent on payroll. A big spender relative to the rest of the league, the Yankees are, but not relative to their enormous revenue streams.

It is fair to ask then, if payroll does come down in 2025, why? The Yankees just went to the World Series and lost. Why are you lowering payroll now? Even losing the World Series comes with a massive windfall between tickets, merchandise, etc. Payroll coming down after losing the World Series, and with Soto becoming a free agent, would be an awful look and open ownership to questions about their commitment to winning. This is the time to push even more chips in and go for it, not cut back. 

3. What happens with Cole?

Cole, the 2023 AL Cy Young winner, missed the start of the 2024 season with nerve inflammation in his elbow, and he was initially a little wobbly when he returned. He then settled in down the stretch and pitched well at the end of the regular season and into the postseason. He wasn't Cy Cole, but he finished the year well after the injury early. Now comes decision time. Cole has an opt-out clause in his contract. Here are the terms:

• Cole can opt out of remaining four years and $144 million ($36 million per year).
• The Yankees can void the opt out by adding one year and $36 million to his contract.

If Cole opts out, the Yankees can add a 10th year to his nine-year, $324 million contract, and keep him without having to go through a free-agent bidding war. My guess -- and I emphasize this is only a guess -- is Cole will use the opt out and the Yankees will add the 10th year to keep him. He's still very good, he's beloved within the organization, he's a leader in the clubhouse, and he's seems smart and talented enough to make the necessary adjustments to remain effective as he gets deeper into his 30s.

It's not that simple though, right? Payroll might be coming down and the Yankees have to re-sign Soto. Letting him get away would be a franchise-altering mistake that would take a generation to recover from. Objectively, if it's one or the other, you let the 34-year-old ace pitcher leave so you can sign the 26-year-old superstar hitter, right? That seems like a no-brainer. We did begin to see the cracks form in Cole's foundation this year. He had the elbow issue, he missed a start with fatigue at midseason, and his swings and misses are down. Father Time is beginning to chip away at age 34.

The Yankees traded for Soto with the intention of signing him long-term and they understood that meant possibly paying him and Cole enormous sums over the next 4-5 years. Even with payroll possibly coming down, I think the Yankees plan to retain Cole and also re-sign Soto, then they'll figure out other ways to shed salary. There are valid baseball reasons to let Cole leave though. The Yankees could say "thank you" for the last five years, take the win, and let some other team pay for his decline years. 

4. Is Boone the right manager?

The World Series berth all but assures manager Aaron Boone will return in 2025. He just completed the final guaranteed year on his contract and the Yankees don't do extensions, but Boone's deal includes a club option, so it seems likely (very likely) the Yankees will pick that up, keep Boone, and see how things go in 2025. Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman love Boone, and so do his players. They don't want to replace him and the pennant win gives them cover to stick with the incumbent.

That said, anytime you're the Yankees and you don't win the World Series, you have ask whether your manager (and his coaching staff) is the right person for the job. This was Year 7 with Boone and also the seventh time the Yankees hit the same ceiling. They cannot beat non-AL Central teams in the postseason. They haven't beaten a team outside the AL Central in a postseason series since the 2012 ALDS against the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees did beat the Oakland Athletics in the 2018 Wild Card Game, but that was one single game. In an actual multi-game postseason series, they haven't beaten a non-AL Central team since 2012.

And then there's the sloppiness. It's been evident the entirety of the Boone era and it was on full display in the World Series. Three times in Game 1 they gave the Dodgers third base with poor defense. The players have (mostly) changed and yet the Yankees remain a careless and undisciplined team on the bases and in the field. At some point the sloppiness reflects poorly on the manager and his coaches, and seven years is more than enough time to reach that point. The Yankees shoot themselves in the foot constantly. What reason is there to suggest that'll change under Boone?

Boone had a really good ALDS and ALCS, then the Nestor Cortes decision backfired badly in Game 1 against the Dodgers, and the team's undisciplined play stood out like a sore thumb in the World Series. Compared to the Dodgers, it is no contest. The Dodgers are far more buttoned-up. After seven years of the same outcome -- beating an AL Central team(s), losing to a non-AL Central team, sloppy play -- it's fair to wonder whether new leadership is needed. The pennant all but assures Boone will return in 2025, but the Yankees need to really dig in and figure out why the roster is less than the sum of the parts year after year.

5. How do you improve the team?

The Yankees were very top heavy in 2024. They led baseball in homers during the regular season but Judge, Soto, and Stanton combined to hit 53% of those homers, far and away the highest rate among a team's top three home run hitters. The middle of their bullpen was the weakest it's been in years. The bench was so thin that defense-first backup catcher Jose Trevino pinch-hit with the bases loaded in the ninth inning of World Series Game 2 because the Yankees simply did not have a better right-handed threat on their bench. The Yankees were carried by their stars this year. Their depth was lacking.

Gleyber Torres is a free agent, creating an opening at second base. Even if the Yankees slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second, that just shifts the opening to third. Alex Verdugo is a free agent, so the Yankees yet again need to find a left fielder. Or perhaps it will be top prospect Jasson Domínguez? The fact the Yankees stood by Verdugo all year and refuse to give Domínguez the same kind of rope they've given Anthony Volpe doesn't speak well to his standing in the organization. They say they love him and he's a big part of their future. Their actions say otherwise.

If the Yankees re-sign Soto, how do they align their outfield? You can't expect Judge to play center field at age 33 in 2025. He did it in 2024 because he had to -- that was the best way to jam the puzzle pieces together -- but center field is a young player's position. Judge's days in center should be numbered. It's best for him and for the team. The Yankees also need a first baseman with Anthony Rizzo headed for free agency. Their first-base production was dreadful this year, among the worst in franchise history. They did not get a single home run from a first baseman after July 31st.

Pitching depth is always needed. The Yankees are no different than every other team in that department. Assuming they retain Cole, they will have six starting pitchers either signed or under team control in 2025 (Cole, Cortes, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman). The bullpen is another matter with Tim Hill, Clay Holmes, and Tommy Kahnle (and the injured Jonathan Loáisiga) set to hit free agency. New York's offseason to-do list looks something like this:

1. Re-sign Soto
2. Add a big first-base bat
3. Figure out second base (is prospect Caleb Durbin the answer?)
4. Import at least one reliever and really more like two or three
5. Add an outfield bat if they're not going to commit to Domínguez
6. Improve the bench and raise their internal replacement level

The Yankees need to add depth and balance to their roster. They relied heavily on their stars this past season and there's nothing wrong with that, but when Judge no-showed in the World Series, there simply wasn't enough lineup depth to overcome it. Boone relied on the same three or four relievers game after game in October because he didn't trust anyone else, and they were worn down by the end of the World Series. All relievers are worn down this time of year, but the Dodgers were able to spread the workload around in a way the Yankees could not.

These are the Yankees. They don't have to pick between stars and depth the way some teams do. They can have a roster with both high-end talent and depth. It's doable even with a payroll reduction seemingly on the horizon. This is an important offseason though. It's a crossroads, really. Soto is a free agent and Cole/Judge are another year into their 30s and another year closer to their decline phases. This offseason will determine not only whether the Yankees will be able to get back to the World Series in the Cole/Judge era, but actually win it. They're closer to the end of the championship window than the beginning. How do they extend it?