Top NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, strategy for Week 3, 2024: Avoid this undefeated team

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 3 NFL survivor picks

There are two games on the Week 3 NFL schedule that feature 2-0 teams versus 0-2 teams. Buccaneers vs. Broncos (+6.5) on Sunday, and Bills vs. Jaguars (+5) on Monday share similar NFL spreads, and both could be high interest for Week 3 NFL survivor pool picks. Tampa and Buffalo are also at home, but which one is the better option for Week 3 NFL knockout pool picks? Your NFL survivor strategy shouldn't just look at this week's game since you also have to look at the long-term picture. Balancing this week-to-week approach with a long-term vision is one of the factors that makes NFL eliminator pool picks so fun, but also so difficult. Before finalizing any Week 3 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and locked in its Week 3 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 3 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Chiefs (-3.5, 46.5) versus Atlanta, even though the reigning champs have started off 2-0, with wins over preseason Super Bowl contenders in the Ravens and Bengals. While those were two big wins, the Chiefs did take a loss with the injury to RB Isiah Pacheco. He's coming off a game with 111 total yards, and he leads the Chiefs in scrimmage yards (189) this season. The only other Chiefs RB who has carried the ball is undrafted rookie Carson Steele, who lost a fumble during one of his seven rushes a week ago.

Pacheco's absence puts more pressure on Patrick Mahomes and KC's defense, both of which have underachieved so far. Mahomes has the same number of interceptions (three) as TD passes, while the Chiefs rank 29th in total defense and 31st in passing defense. Kirk Cousins just diced up the Eagles' defense for a come-from-behind victory on Monday night, and Atlanta will be fired up to host its first SNF game in five years. This could be a trap game for the Chiefs, with a divisional matchup against a potentially undefeated Chargers team on tap in Week 4, so the model advises to avoid Kansas City in this week's survivor pools. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 3 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 3 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 3, all from the advanced computer model that nailed both its Weeks 1 and 2 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.