UFC Macau: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Yan vs. Figueiredo

UFC Macau is live this weekend (Sat., Nov. 23, 2024), featuring former champions Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event. Checkout the odds for that fight (and much more) right here!

UFC Macau goes down this weekend (Sat., Nov., 23, 2024) inside Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau, China. The ESPN+-streamed main event features a clash of former champions (in different weight classes) with Petr Yan meeting Deiveson Figueiredo in the Bantamweight division.

UFC Macau’s co-main will feature Yan Xiaonan taking on Tabatha Ricci at Strawweight. The main card also includes Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg, as well as the highly-touted Wang Cong meeting Gabriela Fernandes.

The “Prelims” include the latest final matches for the Road to UFC series. Among those finals match-ups are Feng Xiaocan vs. Shi Ming and Dong Hoon Choi vs. Kiru Sign Sahota.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Yan vs. Figueiredo” and all the other bouts on the card ...

UFC Macau Main Card Money Line Odds

Petr Yan (-320) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+250)

Yan heads into the main event here off the back of a big win over Song Yadong in March. After a slow start, Yan out-struck Song and landed two crucial takedowns to earn the unanimous decision win.

The win snapped Yan’s three-fight losing streak, which includes split decision losses to Aljimain Sterling and Sean O’Malley, as well as a unanimous decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili (and his 49 takedown attempts). The loss to Sterling was extremely close and the loss to O’Malley was even closer (with many crying robbery).

Figueiredo passed his 135-pound test with flying colors, going 3-0 at 135 pounds. His three wins aren’t against just anyone, either. He has defeated Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt (by submission — see it here) and Marlon Vera.

Figueiredo will be giving up height to Yan, but not reach. He actually has a one-inch advantage in that department. He struggled with the reach of Font and Vera at times in those fights, but made his impact with takedowns.

Despite not having a reach advantage, I expect Yan to give Figueiredo some trouble on the feet. He’s a very active striker, landing 5.14 significant strikers per minute (Figueiredo lands 3.01).

If Figueiredo is hoping to cancel out Yan’s striking with wrestling, then he might struggle there, too. Yan’s takedown defense is stellar (85 percent) and very battle-tested given the Merabbing he experienced last year.

Figueiredo’s takedown accuracy is 35 percent. Yan was able to make Song miss on seven of eight takedown attempts in his last fight. And that’s with Song having a takedown accuracy of over 40 percent.

And if Yan is taken down once or twice by Figueiredo, Yan should be able to get up rather quickly.

I think Yan will win this fight by decision. He hasn’t finished a fight since he stopped Jose Aldo (see it here) in 2020 (if you don’t count his illegal knee on Sterling). And this is despite him hurting some opponents with his striking.

Yan by decision is +110, which is a lot more appealing than the -310 moneyline or the -5.5 point spread at -135. The fight going the distance is a nice conservative option at -150. Draftkings also has a same game parlay of Yan to win and over 4.5 rounds, which you can get for -110.

Ultimately, I’m going for the plus money and the belief that Yan will be too much for Figueiredo (who turns 37 in a few weeks).

Best bet: Petr Yan via decision (+110)

Yan Xiaonan (-210) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+175)

Last time out, Xiaonan was mauled by her countrywoman, Zhang Weili, at UFC 300. Yan’s failed title challenge came after back-to-back wins over Jessica Andrade (via first round knockout — see it here) and Mackenzie Dern.

Ricci, meanwhile, is coming off a unanimous decision over Angela Hill in August and a split decision over Tecia Pennington. The best win on her recent resume is a 2023 decision over Gillian Robertson (who has looked great lately).

Yan’s boxing was a distant second-best to Zhang’s at UFC 300, but she’s still got better hands than most the division. And she’s a much better striker than Ricci.

Yan lands 4.97 significant strikes per-minute and absorbs 3.66. If you throw out her fight with Zhang (who landed 106 significant strikes to Yan’s 46), those numbers would be very impressive indeed. She also has an accuracy of 44 percent on significant strikes.

Ricci’s accuracy is just 38 percent and she absorbs more significant strikes than she lands (5.3 vs. 4.63).

Yan will also have a two-inch reach advantage and a four-inch height advantage over “Baby Shark.”

I think these numbers spell out a pretty lopsided kickboxing match.

Ricci was able to counter Hill’s striking with takedowns, landing three of her four attempts. This is a concern, since Yan’s takedown defense is average, at best.

I think Yan’s success with striking might zap a lot of the power out of Ricci’s takedown game, though. And we might see some tired and telegraphed takedown attempts get turned aside or countered with hard strikes.

I think there’s a chance Yan finishes this fight. If you’re willing to bet that you can find lots of tasty odds. Yan via KO/TKO/DQ is +450. The fight ending by KO/TKO/DQ is +350. And under 2.5 rounds is +310. The fight not going the distance is +250.

If you want to be safe, I think the Yan moneyline is your play. But, I’m feeling bold and I think Yan is going to score a big win in Macau.

Best bet: Yan Xiaonan via KO/TKO/DQ (+450)

Song Kenan (+150) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-180)

Kenan just got by the remnants of Ricky Glenn at UFC 305, winning via unanimous decision; however, it wasn’t a performance for the ages and he lost the first round after being taken down twice.

Salikhov — who knows China very well thanks to his sanda prowess and regional experience there — is coming off a split decision over Santiago Ponznibbio at UFC Denver. Before that, he was KO’d by Randy Brown (see it here).

Salikhov turned 40 this summer, while Song is no spring chicken at 34.

I don’t think either of these guys are going to bother with takedowns in this match. Instead, we’ll get kickboxing and see if Song’s volume and pressure can beat out Salkihov’s technique and precision.

Song’s chin is questionable with recent technical knockout losses to Ian Machado Garry (see that one here) and Max Griffin. As is Salikhov’s with his loss to Brown coming two years after Li Jingliang stopped him with strikes (see it here).

Both men’s willingness to brawl and history of being stopped has me thinking this fight won’t go the distance. That’s +100 and that’s where I’m going with my bet. I do think Song is a tempting underdog, though.

Best bet: Fight to go the Distance - NO (+100)

Wang Cong (-1000) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+600)

Cong obliterated Victoria Leonardo last time out (see it here). Her striking looked very clean and powerful. Leonardo has been stopped a lot in her career, but never by a single punch.

Fernandes, meanwhile, is being brought to Macau to lose. Her only UFC win is a split decision over Carli Justice — a fight which won her a “Fight of the Night” bonus. Her other UFC fights were unanimous decision losses to Tereza Bleda and Jasmine Jasudavicius.

I think it’s still early to think of Wang as a potential title challenger. However, she certainly looks like a dangerous addition to the division and I’ll trust the bookie’s estimation of her in this match-up.

She’s going to be in lots of parlays, but if you want to get value on a single bet with her, you need to look at the over/under. The total rounds is set at 2.5, which is interesting. I was expecting 1.5 given her lightning fast finish over Leonardo.

Over 2.5 rounds is -175 and the under is +135. So, Vegas thinks Fernandes might be a decent test for Cong. These lines are also likely affected by how often women’s fights go the distance.

Just like with Xiaonan, I’m feeling bold. And I think some of these Chinese fighters are going to show up in Macau. Wang had a lot to say on the mic when she beat Leonardo (about fighting in the APEX and wanting a bigger spotlight). I think she puts her money where her mouth is and gets Fernandes out quickly.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+135)

Responsible Betting

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:

• USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline — Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.
• UK: GamCare - Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).
• Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada’s various provinces and territories.
• Australia/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline — Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Volkan Oezdemir (+220) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-270)

Ulberg has been in devastating form. Last time out, he stopped Alonzo Menifield in 12 seconds (see it here). Before that, he submitted Da Woon Jung. And before that, he finished his previous three fights with strikes.

Ulberg’s lone professional loss is to Kennedy Nzechukwu (see it here), who has since moved up to Heavyweight.

UFC tried to match Ulberg with Jamahal Hill and Anthony Smith, but Oezdemir is the man who will actually get to check Ulberg’s credentials. Oezdemir — a former 205-pound title challenger — was won his last two fights. Last time out, he melted Johnny Walker with an uppercut (see it here).

I respect Oezdemir’s ability to land hard and short counters, but I really don’t like this match-up for him. Ulberg is massive for the weight-class and he will have size and reach advantages over Oezdemir.

I think Ulberg will blitz Oezdemir and the fight will end soon after. I think it’s more likely that Ulberg will pour on offense and get a technical knockout, but I’m not ruling out Oezdemir landing a cracking hook with his back against the fence. Because of that, I’m hitting the under.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-195)

Zhang Mingyang (-310) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+245)

Mingyang beat-up Brendson Ribeiro at UFC 295 In February (see it here). That came after he won Road to UFC with a stoppage over Tuco Tokkos.

Diaz, meanhile, was finished on Contender Series by Joe Pyfer in 2022. Since that loss, he’s won a pair of fights in Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) in exciting fashion.

Vegas thinks Zhang will win this ... and do so quickly. The total rounds are set at 1.5 with the under at -250.

Diaz is a finisher himself. In 11 professional fights, he’s never made it to a decision (won seven fights by strikes and two by submission). So, I agree that this fight might not last long.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-250)

UFC Macau ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Soo Young Yu (-150) vs. Jieleyisi Baergeng (+125)

This is the bantamweight final of the latest Road to UFC season.

Other than watching their Road to UFC fights, there’s not a ton of analysis I can provide on this fight or many others on the remainder of the card. Jieleyisi Baergeng had an easier time with his two opponents than Soo Young Yu did. I’ll take him as the slight underdog here.

Best bet: Jieleyisi Baergeng moneyline (+124)

Responsible Betting

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:

• USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline — Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.
• UK: GamCare - Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).
• Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada’s various provinces and territories.
• Australia/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline — Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Kiru Singh Sahota (-110) vs. Dong Hoon Choi (-110)

This is the Flyweight final for Road to UFC.

Sahota is a very lanky Flyweight, standing 5’10.” His opponent, Hoon Choi, didn’t look very impressive on Road to UFC, squeaking by with a split decision in the semifinals. He got hit a lot in that match, so I think Sahota’s reach will be an issue.

Best bet: Kiru Singh Sahota moneyline (-110)

Feng Xiaocan (-300) vs. Shi Ming (+240)

This is the Strawweight final for Road to UFC.

The 5’ 7” Xiaocan is very tall and long for the division. She’ll tower over Ming (who is just 5’ 2”). Feng is also just 22, while Shi is 30. Xiaocan’s size alone is worthy of making her the favorite in this match-up. For lack of betting options on DraftKings, I’m just taking the moneyline here.

Best bet: Feng Xiaocan moneyline (-300)

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+170) vs. Carlos Hernandez (-200)

Hernandez lost to Rei Tsuruya at UFC 303. Rei — another Road to UFC graduate — spent much of the fight trying to win with Brazilian jiu-jitsu party tricks. Prior to that, Hernandez was stopped by Tatsuro Taira (see it here).

Tumendemberel has the provocative nickname “Art of the Knockout.” And, appropriately, he’s undefeated (8-0) with two knockouts on his record.

Hernandez is the older and more experienced fighter. I think that’s probably enough to get by Tumendemberel, who doesn’t seem to have much upside.

Best bet: Carlos Hernandez moneyline (-200)

Lone’er Kavanagh (-370) vs. Jose Ochoa (+275)

Both these guys boast the same perfect record (7-0). England’s Kavanagh finished An Tuan Ho on Contender Series with a first round knockout. He was brought onto that show after a successful run in Cage Warriors.

Ochoa, meanwhile, heads to Macau from Peru. He’s debuting in UFC with no prior Contender Series nor The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) experience, which is a rarity in this day and age. His best win was at LFA last year, defeating Juscelino Pantoja with an anaconda choke.

Kavanagh looked like an interesting prospect on Contender Series and he’s been given what could be a lay-up here.

Best bet: Lone’er Kavangh moneyline (-370)

Xiao Long (-120) vs. Quang Le (Even)

Long lost a very close split decision to Lee Changho at UFC Saudi Arabia. That was his first assignment after coming off 2023’s Road to UFC. In 2021, he lost to Cristian Quinonez, by decision (on Contender Series).

Le debuted in UFC as a short notice opponent for Chris Gutierrez in August and he didn’t look half bad, losing a decision.

This could be “Fight of the Night.” In the end, I think these guys brawl it out for three rounds and we get a close decision.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-215)

Maheshate Hayisaer (-210) vs. Nikolas Motta (+175)

Motta upset Tom Nolan in his last fight, winning via first round technical knockout (see it here). That followed a “No Contest” with Trey Ogden (which was likely heading toward a loss). Motta was KO’d by Manuel Torres (see it here) in 2023 and TKO’d by Jim Miller in 2022 (see it here).

Hayisaer, meanwhile, is coming off a split decision win over Gabriel Benitez. Prior to that, he was stopped by Viacheslav Borshchev. Maheshate holds a knockout win over Steve Garcia (see it here), who has won five straight — all by technical knockout — since then.

Both these guys are brawlers. I’m just picking Maheshate on the strength of his Garcia win (the best thing either guy has done in UFC, by far).

Best bet: Maheshate Hayisaer moneyline (+175)

UFC Macau Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Macau card ...

Three-fight parlay: Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci under 2.5 rounds, Carlos Ulberg vs. Volkan Oezdemir under 1.5 rounds and Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes under 2.5 rounds (+2347)

The hardest part of this parlay to cash is probably Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci. Yan is coming off a big loss, though, and she might be motivated to put on a show in Macau. Ulberg is a finishing machine so you have to like his chances of ending it quick. And Wang Cong just might be the next big thing at Strawweight. If she is, she might starch Gabriella Fernandes like she did Victoria Leonardo.

Kenan Song to win by KO.TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+2200)

Song vs. Salikhov will likely be a striking battle with neither fighter having much interest in the takedown. Salikhov is 40-years-old so he might tire down the stretch. Song might be able to outpace him late and pour on enough strikes to get a technical knockout late in the fight.

Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo - Point to Be Deducted - Yes (+2000)

We might have some new and unusual characters reffing and judging fights in Macau, so we might get some strange decisions. What if the referee is paying close attention to Yan, given his disqualication knee against Sterling, and decides to skip a warning and take away a point for punches to the back of the head? It could happen.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

LIVE! Stream UFC Macau On ESPN+

WELTERWEIGHT WARTIME! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Nov. 9, 2024, with an important Welterweight main event between battle-tested veteran and No. 15-ranked contender Neil Magny as he takes on fast-rising “Contender Series” phenom Carlos Prates. In addition, former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt returns to face off against red-hot Miles Johns in UFC Vegas 100’s hard-hitting co-headliner.

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