Arsenal lead the Premier League table this Christmas - will they be crowned 2025/26 champions?(Image: Ben Roberts - Danehouse/Getty Images)

Arsenal's 'only problem' noted on Match of the Day as Mikel Arteta warned over repeat

by · football.london

History is not on Arsenal's side after victory at Everton ensured the Gunners sit top of the Premier League table at Christmas

Arsenal secured their place at the top of the Premier League over Christmas with victory over Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Viktor Gyokeres' first-half penalty proved the difference as Mikel Arteta's men stood firm.

This result pushed the Gunners up to 39 points out of a possible 51 so far this season, with closest challengers Manchester City sitting just two points behind after their comfortable win over West Ham on Saturday.

Third-placed Aston Villa also have the opportunity to shorten their gap to Arsenal to three points when they face Manchester United on Sunday.

So, it is no guarantee Arsenal will be crowned champions next May despite their advantage over the festive period - especially when their record is to be considered.

"Look, that's a massive win because that was a tough game tonight. They've obviously took that moment of madness, scored the goal, stayed in front," Joe Hart discussed on BBC Match of the Day.

"A few difficult decisions for the referee but ultimately it is about winning at this stage of the season and being on top of the league, because they know they've got a dominant Manchester City breathing down their necks."

Host Kelly Cates responded: "The only problem is that they have been here before. They have been top of the Premier League table at Christmas and they haven't yet won it when they have been top at Christmas."

Four times the Gunners have led at Christmas - 2002/03, 2007/08, 2022/23 and 2023/24 - and it has not been enough to get them over the line.

When all sides are considered, in 16 out of the 33 past Premier League campaigns the leaders at Christmas have failed to see the job through.

football.london examines the bad omens behind Arteta and Co.'s latest title push...

2002/03: The Defending Champions' Stumble

Coming off a Double-winning season, Arsene Wenger’s side looked unstoppable, especially after Wenger famously suggested they could go an entire season unbeaten.
They held a healthy lead over Manchester United for much of the campaign and sat top on Christmas Day. However, the pressure of maintaining that dominance began to show in the spring. A pivotal turning point was a 2-2 draw at Bolton Wanderers in late April, where Arsenal surrendered a 2-0 lead; this result handed the momentum to a surging United side.
The collapse was compounded by a loss of discipline and key injuries, most notably to defensive pillar Sol Campbell, who was suspended for the final run-in after a red card against United.
A subsequent 3-2 home defeat to Leeds United officially ended their title hopes. While the season ended in disappointment, the lessons learned from this "failed" defence are often credited with fuelling the legendary "Invincibles" run that followed in 2003/04.

2007/08: Tragedy at St Andrew’s

Despite losing club legend Thierry Henry in the summer, a young, vibrant team led by Cesc Fabregas played some of the most attractive football in Europe, leading the league by five points in February. They were the undisputed "Christmas Number One," and many believed Wenger had built a new dynasty.
However, the season fractured during a single afternoon in Birmingham on February 23, 2008.
Striker Eduardo suffered a horrific, season-ending leg injury, leaving the young squad visibly traumatised. In the same match, Birmingham equalised with a late penalty.
The psychological fallout was catastrophic; Arsenal drew four consecutive games following that day and eventually finished third, just four points behind champions Manchester United. It remains a haunting "what if" for fans who felt that specific squad was destined for greatness.

2022/23

Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal emerged as the surprise package of the league, leading the table for a staggering 248 days - the most for any team in English top-flight history to not win the title.
They went into the Christmas break with a five-point cushion over Manchester City, fuelled by the energy of Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard. For months, it seemed they might actually hold off Pep Guardiola’s team, but the squad’s lack of depth was eventually exposed during the high-pressure "run-in."
The decline began in April after a season-ending injury to William Saliba left the defence vulnerable. Arsenal dropped points in three consecutive draws against Liverpool, West Ham, and Southampton, before being soundly beaten 4-1 by Manchester City at the Etihad.
The young Gunners appeared to buckle under the weight of City’s relentless winning streak, eventually finishing five points adrift. Despite the heartbreak, the season marked Arsenal’s return to the elite after years of finishing outside the top four.

2023/24

Arsenal returned even stronger the following year, leading the pack at Christmas 2023. This time, the team was more defensively robust, having added Declan Rice to the midfield. However, a brief festive period "blip" - including a home loss to West Ham and a lackluster defeat at Fulham - saw them briefly lose their grip on first place.
They responded with one of the most dominant calendar-year runs in history, winning 16 out of their final 18 games of the season.
Ultimately, the margins were razor-thin. A 2-0 home loss to Aston Villa in April proved to be the only fatal error in an otherwise near-perfect second half of the season. Because Manchester City refused to drop a single point in their final nine matches, Arsenal finished second with 89 points - a total that would have won the league in 20 of the previous 31 Premier League seasons.
It was a case of a world-class team being beaten by a historical outlier, leaving the Gunners as the highest-scoring runners-up in their history.

It's not just Arsenal...

Beyond Arsenal, the most legendary example of a Christmas collapse is undoubtedly Newcastle United in 1995/96. Under Kevin Keegan, "The Entertainers" held a commanding 10-point lead on Christmas Day, which they eventually stretched to 12 points in January.
However, a pressurised spring saw them drop crucial points while a relentless Manchester United reeled them in, culminating in Keegan’s famous "I would love it!" televised rant as the title slipped away.
In the late 90s, the "Christmas Curse" became a recurring theme for various clubs: Norwich City (1992/93), Aston Villa (1998/99), and Leeds United (1999/00) all led during the festive period only to fall away, with Villa suffering the most dramatic decline by eventually finishing down in sixth place.
In more recent history, Liverpool has been the most frequent victim of this trend, failing to convert a Christmas lead into a title on four separate occasions (2008/09, 2013/14, 2018/19, and 2020/21). In 2018/19, Jurgen Klopp’s side amassed a staggering 97 points - losing only one game all season - yet still finished second because City produced an unprecedented 14-game winning streak to overtake them.
Even Manchester United isn't immune; in 1997/98, they led by a comfortable margin at Christmas only to be hunted down by a surging Arsenal side that won ten consecutive games to claim the double.

Still time for history to change

Arsenal find themselves in a familiar but precarious position, sitting two points clear of Manchester City at the top of the table this Christmas following a gritty 1-0 win over Everton.
Unlike the expansive, high-scoring teams of the past, this iteration of Arsenal has focused on defensive solidity, conceding just 10 goals in 17 matches. However, with City recently "steamrolling" opponents with three consecutive 3-0 wins, the pressure to maintain perfection is immense.
The primary concern remains whether this squad can "win ugly" consistently through the spring or if the physical and mental fatigue that derailed their 2022/23 and 2023/24 campaigns will return.
Injuries to key defenders like Gabriel have already tested their resolve, leading to calls for January reinforcements to prevent a repeat of the "Saliba drop-off" from two years ago.
By managing the "emotional load" and ensuring they don't get too high after narrow wins or too low after minor setbacks, Arteta aims to prove that this time, being Christmas Number One is a springboard rather than a curse.(Image: Rico Brouwer/Soccrates/Getty Images)