Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe prediction: US Open semifinal pick, best bet, odds

One of the most anticipated matches in the history of the U.S. Open comes our way on Friday night under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Two Americans, Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe, will battle it out in Friday’s second semifinal, with both players looking to get to their first-ever Grand Slam final.

The bookies have installed Shelton as a clear favorite to win the match. The World No. 9 is currently sitting at -325, with Tiafoe coming back at +250.

U.S. Open semifinal: Shelton vs. Tiafoe pick

There are plenty of storylines to unpack for this tilt. Whether it’s the 23-year drought for American men at Grand Slams (Andy Roddick was the last to win a major at the 2003 U.S. Open) or the fact that both players are 0-2 in major semifinals, there’s plenty of yarn to spin. But the reality is that the stakes are essentially the same for both superstars. Neither has gotten over this hurdle, and they both know what a win would mean in the context of tennis in the States.

So we can just call the intangibles a wash and instead focus on the tale of the tape, which I believe is closer than the odds suggest.

Shelton is coming off the most impressive win in his career over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, and that is rightfully impacting the price, but Tiafoe deserves plenty of recognition for his current run. The Maryland native needed to come back from two sets down against rising American Alex Michelsen in the quarterfinals, but he ripped through No. 7 Daniil Medvedev and No. 22 Valentin Vacherot in his two preceding contests.

It’s also worth noting that Tiafoe checked into Flushing off a trip to the final at the Cincinnati Masters, meaning he’s won 10 of his last 11 matches and has left plenty of big names (Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, Learner Tien) in his wake. Shelton’s had to overcome a tricky path in Queens, and he won the Canadian Masters a month ago, but he’s not the +250 underdog in this clash.

In terms of X’s and O’s, Shelton has the edge when it comes to serving, but Tiafoe can rack up cheap points with his fastball, too. The latter is also the more unpredictable of the two combatants. Tiafoe likes to play an attacking brand of tennis, but he’s a cheeky shot-maker who is willing to try different things to keep you guessing.

Everything in betting comes down to price. Shelton is the more likely winner, but it’s Tiafoe who provides the value.

The Play: Tiafoe moneyline (+250, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.