Islanders vs. Lightning prediction: Odds, picks, and best bet for Saturday’s matinee

The Islanders are rolling. The Lightning are rolling. And this is the third game between these two teams in two weeks. This one should have a playoff-like feel to it.

The Lightning are slight favorites on the road against the Isles, who will be inducting Pat LaFonantaine into the team’s Hall of Fame before puck drop on Saturday.

Islanders vs. Lightning odds, prediction

The biggest news for this one is that Bo Horvat is almost certain to miss the game. The leading goalscorer on Long Island fell awkwardly in Thursday’s win over the Ducks, but it does seem like the worst-case scenario has been avoided. Horvat was labeled “day-to-day” by head coach Patrick Roy.

The good news for the Islanders is that they are much better equipped to handle this kind of loss than they were in seasons past. When Mat Barzal and Anthony Duclair were out long-term last year, the Isles had to patch together a lineup with a handful of AHLers. This roster is much deeper, with Jonathan Drouin and/or Max Tsyplakov likely to slot in on Saturday.

It’s still a bad thing for the Islanders — Horvat has been lights out all season and is among the NHL’s leaders in goals — but it’s not a death knell. It does make Saturday’s tilt much more challenging, though.

After a brief stumble with a depleted lineup, the Lightning have course-corrected by scoring 14 goals in their last two games. We knew that this offense was going to be a beast with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel, but it’s the defense that makes the Bolts a Stanley Cup contender once again.

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Tampa is the fourth-best team in the NHL at preventing high-danger scoring chances this season, and they rank eighth in expected goals allowed at 5-on-5. With Andrei Vasilevskiy in form, it’s no wonder Tampa sits fourth in the circuit in goals against per game.

The Islanders have been a bit messy in their own zone for most of this season, but things are getting better in that department on the Island, and Ilya Sorokin has performed like one of the best goaltenders in the NHL since the start of November.

The line has adjusted a bit too much in favor of the Lightning because of Horvat’s absence, but a play on the Under 5.5 at plus-money seems like a savvy bet on Saturday.

The Play: Under 5.5 (+105, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.