North Texas vs. Tulane prediction: AAC championship odds, picks, best bets Friday

· New York Post

Points have come like water from a busted hydrant for both No. 20 North Texas and No. 21 Tulane.

The Over/Under for the AAC Championship Friday reflects that accordingly, perched at 67.5 — the highest of any of the nine FBS conference championships this weekend by a seven-point margin. 

North Texas brings the No. 1 overall offense in college football SP+ rankings. The Mean Green detonate for 46.8 points per game and have posted at least 52 in three straight. 

They barrel into Friday from a 52-25 thrashing of Temple last week, torching in the Owls for 605 total yards and 9.5 per play. 

It’s novel to think that Drew Mestemaker was a walk-on and now leads the nation in passing yards with 320 per game and completes 71 percent of his attempts. 

North Texas vs. Tulane odds, prediction

We’re going to have to brace ourselves as this operation draws a Tulane secondary that allows 252 passing yards, which ranks No. 119 overall in FBS.

The Green Wave has been hit by quarterbacks for over 300 yards five times. 

North Texas wideout Wyatt Young projects for a voracious appetite in this one; he has been the main beneficiary of Mestemaker’s magic, racking up the third-most raw yardage in college football with 1,203. 

Jake Retzlaff #12 of the Tulane Green Wave runs the ball during the second half of the game against the Army West Point Black Knights at Yulman Stadium on October 18, 2025. Getty Images

Then, there’s the inevitable Caleb Hawkins out of the backfield. No player has scored more touchdowns than Hawkins’ 26; he’s racked up 16 of those just in his last four games. 

Tulane matches these weapons with a quarterback who leads the team in rushing yards.

Jake Retzlaff and his 561 scrimmage yards face a flawed Mean Green run defense that’s coughed up five yards per carry.

Teams that have committed to the ground game have dragged North Texas into high-possession, high-scoring scripts; South Florida, the only team to beat the Mean Green, logged 306 rushing yards and posted 63 points alone. 

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The Green Wave should own their fair share of possessions by exploiting this weakness to convert on third downs, but Retzlaff has also been susceptible to turnovers.

He threw a couple of picks against Charlotte last week and with the volume projected in this game, there should be plenty of opportunity for short-field scores. 

This is a lame duck period for both head coaches, who are taking off for new programs after this season. That means on this stage, we could expect aggressive play-calling and players looking to make an impression for incoming staff.

It’s all green lights down in New Orleans. 

THE PLAY: Over 66.5 (-110, Fanatics)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.