Falcons vs. Steelers odds, predictions: NFL week 1 best bets, picks

· New York Post

Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is back for his third season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide. 

***Editor’s note: This story ran in the Sept. 11 edition of The Post with the spread shifting to the Steelers favored by 4.5 points, and the line bumped to 5.5 or higher Friday afternoon with the news of Falcons QB Tua Tagovailoa being ruled out due to an oblique injury he suffered. An alternative spread of the Steelers laying 3.5 points comes at a -155 price at BetMGM.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Falcons

Our confidence in the Steelers stems from our lack of belief in Tua Tagovailoa.

There may not have been a less scintillating quarterback “battle” during training camp than the Falcons’ contest pitting Tagovailoa, the Dolphins flameout, against Michael Penix Jr.

A torn ACL prevented Penix from truly having a chance at this role, and that means the Falcons will trot out Tagovailoa and hope he has anything left in the tank.

The 28-year-old provided uninspiring tape during camp after back-to-back underwhelming years with Miami, and now gets to open the season on the road against a solid Steelers defense.

Sure, he has Bijan Robinson and Drake London, but the Steelers can sell out to stop Robinson while not fearing that London is going to exploit them due to Tagovailoa’s weaknesses.

We also can attempt to capitalize on Tagovailoa’s well-known road struggles from his time with Miami, with former Steelers coach Mike Tomlin damningly noting earlier this week how the former Alabama star’s trip to Pittsburgh last season led to him being benched.

On the other side, we have a new Steelers offense being orchestrated by Mike McCarthy.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy talks with quarterback Aaron Rodgers during warmups for a game against the New York Jets at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Friday, August 21, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This isn’t the MVP-level McCarthy-Aaron Rodgers combination of their Packers years, but McCarthy still knows how to run an effective offense that is best suited to highlight Rodgers’ strengths.

The Steelers have solid playmakers with receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf and the backfield combination of Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren.

Catch up on The Post’s NFL betting previews and predictions for the 2026 season

The Falcons’ defense is solid but not imposing, and will be without pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.

Rogers doesn’t move well at this point, but Atlanta isn’t the team to get after him and make him feel uncomfortable in the pocket.

Pittsburgh should score enough to win by a touchdown or so at home in a low-scoring game and make folks in The A start wondering when Penix will be healthy enough to start. 

2025 record: 17-24-3
24-25 record: 33-51-4

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Matt Ehalt has been picking against the spread since his childhood days when he entered his father’s newspaper pool and even took the top prize on more than one occasion. He specializes in NFL wagers and is quite successful with NCAA brackets.