Knicks can unlock offense by adhering to 3-point plan

DETROIT — I hate discussions that turn sports into a mathematical equation — it’s supposed to be entertainment, not Mrs. Sullivan’s Algebra II class — but it’s Halloween and I’ll dress up for this column as an analytics nerd. 

Picture my pocket protector, calculator, tattoo of Daryl Morey and group photo from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. 

Basketball, when broken down to its most boring, is a series of geometrical shapes and probabilities. 

Which brings us to the biggest theme of Tom Thibodeau’s offense through four games — 3-point attempts. 

Notice the use of “attempts” instead of “makes” or “efficiency.” They’re not mutually exclusive when calculating a projected point total, but there’s an important distinction. The Knicks (2-2) shot 29 3-pointers per game in their two defeats, an average that would project to worst in the league. Opponents, meanwhile, averaged 48.5 3-point attempts in the Knicks’ losses — a number skewed by Boston’s near-historic shooting on opening night, but nonetheless relevant. 

In today’s NBA, it’s virtually impossible to win games with that type of discrepancy. The 3-pointer has become such an efficient shot that launching fewer in mass is a recipe for the draft lottery. It also runs counter to the Knicks’ roster construction, which prioritized shooting in the offseason with Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. 

“Mathematically, we have to be at a certain number of 3-point attempts for us to have a chance to win,” Thibodeau once said. 

The coach has stressed this statistic for years. He’s floated the idea of averaging more than 40 but has yet to crack that over a season. It’s a Thibs Tenet that’s often overlooked because of his reputation as an old-school defensive-minded coach with a slow-paced offense. By his second campaign, the Knicks were shooting 37 treys per game — up from 28.4 the season prior to Thibodeau’s arrival. 

Last season, the Knicks averaged 36 3-pointers — good for 13th in the league despite — playing at the NBA’s slowest pace, meaning fewer possessions. 

It became a hot topic before Wednesday’s victory over Miami, with Thibodeau again contemplating how to take advantage of the four 3-point marksmen in his starting lineup (Josh Hart is the outlier). 

“We’re shooting a good percentage,” the coach said. “I want us taking good shots. I think we’re third in offensive rating. We’re shooting a very high field-goal percentage. We’re shooting a high percentage from 3. But the volume needs to go up so we share in that responsibility.” 

The Knicks responded by launching 40 treys against Erik Spoelstra’s defense, connecting on 45 percent with Towns going 4-for-5. 

“It was a good start,” Thibodeau said. “I liked the way the team generated shots, our volume. We got Karl going inside and our volume of 3s went way up and we had good rhythm on that.” 

So how do the Knicks generate more open 3s? It’s a multi-layered answer but the clearest paths are catching the defense on its heels by getting out in transition, drive and kicks, quick passes along the perimeter to beat rotations, multiple screens to set up preferred matchups, and taking advantage of two-man game between Towns and Jalen Brunson. 

“We need easy baskets,” Thibodeau said. “I don’t want it to be like we’re saying, ‘Oh we have to take 50 3s.’ No, we have to take the right shots. We want as many layups as we can get, as many free throws as we can get and as many 3s as we can get. 

“Everyone shares and is creating those shots. That’s what we have to do.” 

Removing my Halloween costume for a second, the NBA product is diminished with such an emphasis on the 3-pointer. Watching players drive without looking at the hoop — just so they can possibly get a shot from way further out — isn’t visually appealing. I prefer the nuance of a post-up. But that’s a conversation for Adam Silver about shifting the line to eliminate corner 3s. In the meantime, the Knicks will win if they find the answer to the NBA’s most difficult equation.