FSU vs. Alabama prediction: Crimson Tide run Mike Norvell out of town

· New York Post

The writing is on the wall for Mike Norvell at Florida State.

Just under three years ago, the head coach was the toast of the town in Tallahassee after guiding the Seminoles to an undefeated regular season and leading the pushback against the selection committee after they left Florida State out of the College Football Playoff.

Fast forward to the present day, and moving trucks have been spotted outside Norvell’s home, and there is a very real chance that Saturday’s game against Alabama will be his last in Garnet and Gold.

Norvell’s Seminoles are 20.5-point underdogs in Tuscaloosa in Week 3.

FSU vs. Alabama odds, pick

The die has been cast in Tallahassee, but it looks like Kalen DeBoer could be turning the tide with Alabama. DeBoer, unfairly or not, was under immense pressure coming into this season after going “just” 20-8 in his first two campaigns in Title Town.

A convincing start was a requirement for DeBoer, and he got it thanks to a pair of thrashings by the Crimson Tide. They routed East Carolina, 48-10, in Week 1, and then ran away from Kentucky on the road, 45-17, last Saturday.

A Florida State fan holds up a thumbs down signal while yelling “boo” at Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026. The reaction came after the Seminoles lost to the SMU Mustangs. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Quarterback Keelon Russell still has some growing to do, but the Tide defense has made life easy for the redshirt freshman.

Russell should be set up for a big day against Florida State.

While the Seminoles kept the margin of defeat to just three points against SMU in their last time out, the box score tells us another story. The Mustangs racked up 585 yards of offense, including 430 through the air, and averaged 8.7 yards per play against the FSU defense.

That same defense struggled to stop New Mexico State in Week 0.

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The Florida State offense also has plenty of concerns. The running game continues to be a strength, but that is all the Seminoles have going for them, as Ashton Daniels has struggled to move the ball through the air in his first two starts.

Bringing a one-note offense and a terrible defense to Tuscaloosa when your job is on the line seems like a bad idea.

The Play: Alabama -20.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.