NFL Week 4 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game

The Jets’ big win in Week 1 was followed by a “shoulda” vs. the Packers and a “coulda” at the Lions.

We’re left to try to characterize what we’re seeing and figure out whether it’ll be good enough to beat the Bears this Sunday at Soldier Field, or any of the other opponents on the upcoming schedule.

On the plus side, the Jets appear to be better than they’ve been, and far superior to the beer-league bunch that finished last season.

That might not be saying much, but we’re allowed to marvel at a 31-of-37, three-touchdown passing performance by Geno Smith, the explosiveness of first-round pick Kenyon Sadiq and the sticky fingers of Garrett Wilson. The Jets were scoring in the fourth quarter in Detroit after Breece Hall got injured, and without AD Mitchell, Omar Cooper Jr., and Mason Taylor. Add three first-round picks and a high-priced free agent or two next offseason, and we can see where this might be going.

Then there’s the other side of the coin. The Jets are underperforming their stats on the scoreboard. There are holes in the offensive line, which was supposed to be the strength of the team. The defense, despite a No. 2 ranking in yards allowed, has not come up with the big stops when needed in the past two weeks. They still have not made an interception since the 2024 season. The special teams, historically good last season, have fallen off. And Aaron Glenn still has not proven he can make good in-game coaching decisions.

So off we go to Chicago, where the spread is a curiously light 3.5 points even after the Bears’ destruction of the Eagles on Monday night. Maybe oddsmakers are waiting for clarity on whether the Bears will start Case Keenum, Tyson Bagent, or even a rehabbing Caleb Williams at quarterback.

The Bears can be had if the Jets were to play a perfect game, but I don’t see that happening. Turnovers likely will be the key. Chicago has an incredible 39 takeaways in 20 games since the start of 2025. The Jets have six.

Smith thus far has turned it over just once, on the sack/fumble to end the Lions game. He hasn’t thrown an interception. If he starts now, combined with the Glenn vs. Ben Johnson coaching mismatch and the absence of Hall, the Jets will be toast.

The pick: Bears -3.5.

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NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) over Arizona Cardinals

It’s unusual enough that the 1-2 Cardinals are favored on the road against the 2-1 Giants. What’s remarkable is that the line is climbing, from 1.5 to 2.5 on Thursday morning. The oddsmakers seemingly are focused on the Giants ranking last in the NFC with 46 points, and the diminished arm strength of Jameis Winston. They don’t mitigate much of the shock value of Jaxson Dart’s injury vs. the Rams or the bad weather last week vs. the Titans.

My sense is they’re giving a little too much credit to the Cardinals for their belated comeback against the 49ers and expecting Jerimiyah Love to take it to the next level in New Jersey.

Yes, the Giants got away with one vs. Tennessee when Cam Ward could have likely waltzed in with the winning touchdown but instead threw an interception right into Jevon Holland’s hands.

But I’ll take the points at home with John Harbaugh in his 297th regular-season game as a head coach against Mike LaFleur, who’s in his fourth. And I figure the arrival of J.J. McCarthy will give us the best version of Jameis Winston, whatever that can be.

Washington Commanders (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

It’s the first London game of the season. I’m a bit worried to jump on a Marcus Mariota bandwagon. The Commanders upset the Seahawks last week but were outgained by 179 yards. Hoping there’s enough spread cushion here to cover if the Colts pull it out.

Tennessee Titans (+11.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens and Cowboys are the first NFL teams to play in Brazil on a Sunday to be scheduled again seven days later. We’ll see if that 9,500-mile round trip, combined with the last-second win, leaves the Ravens a little sluggish against a desperate 0-3 Titans team.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Packers have some extra time after getting drubbed at home by the Falcons last Thursday. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels steps in for the injured Baker Mayfield. He’ll add some speed to the Bucs offense but there were reasons they were 0-3 for Mayfield and dead-coach-walking Todd Bowles.

New England Patriots (+6.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

Drake Maye has been a disaster thus far for the Patriots with one touchdown pass and six interceptions. That’s reflected in this spread. Figuring the sight of the Bills across the ball will wake up the Patriots. Last year’s games vs. Buffalo were a 35-31 loss and a 23-20 win.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Jaguars have two blowout wins and a loss at Denver in which they led 13-3 in the third quarter. In Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen, and Travis Hunter, they have enough studs on defense to counter Joe Burrow’s nuclear attack.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3) over Los Angeles Rams

I’m still a little salty about losing with the Rams last week. Josh Wallace’s sensational interception would have sealed a win, but he was called for a bogus PI. Rams should get Puka Nacua back. Going with the Eagles, though. After Monday night’s destruction in Chicago, we should see maximum urgency from them at home.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys traveled over 5,000 miles and have to face a rugged Texans team after colossally losing in Rio. Houston scored 31 points in a near miss vs. Buffalo in the opener but only six and 17 the past two weeks, respectively. At 0-3, we should get the Texans’ best effort here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins

Miami has already lost by 14, 22, and 14, and that seems to be the plan for a tanking team. Normally I’d consider taking double digits with 0-3 vs. 3-0, but here we have the subplot of Vikings DC Brian Flores vs. the team that fired him as head coach. I figure he’ll try to embarrass Miami as much as possible.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7) over Los Angeles Chargers

Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in his return at Washington, but two interceptions cost the Seahawks. Chargers are an urgent 0-3, but what are their capabilities? They average 14.3 points per game, and Seattle is arguably the toughest road venue in the NFL.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Who would have thought this would be a battle of 3-0 teams when the Raiders were picking first in the draft, and Patrick Mahomes was rehabbing his knee? Look for Kirk Cousins to feed Brock Bowers (10 for 116 and a touchdown in his debut last week) to try to counter the aggressive Steve Spagnuolo defense.

Denver Broncos (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Toughest pick of the week. Denver has scored only 53 points, but 30 of those came in the second half vs. the Rams. Has new OC and play-caller Davis Webb figured things out? The 49ers are 3-0 but were challenged late by the Cardinals and are starting to receive their annual deluge of injuries.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+3.5) over Detroit Lions

Sunday Night Football ventures to Charlotte, N.C., for the first time since 2015. The Lions probably had more to do with that decision, but I’m willing to grab more than a field goal on a home team that’s averaging almost 30 ppg.

MONDAY

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5) over Atlanta Falcons:

This is the second of three consecutive primetime games for the Falcons, whom the networks must have mistaken for the Chiefs or Bills. We won with Atlanta last week in Green Bay, but this is a team that rarely brings it two games in a row (see 34-3 home loss to Carolina in Week 2). Put me down for Tyler Shough & Co.

BEST BETS: Bears, Titans, Raiders.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Bears (Locks 2-1 in 2026).

LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Browns (W).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.