USA vs. Turkey World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, and best bets

It’s been a carnival-like atmosphere around Team USA at the 2026 World Cup so far, but things will feel different when the Stars & Stripes line up against Turkey on Thursday night.

This is a dead-rubber match. The United States has already won Group D and knows which spot it will occupy in the bracket in the Round of 32, while Turkey has been eliminated from the competition after losing its first two matches.

Unsurprisingly, the betting market is siding with the United States in this glorified friendly. The Yanks are -115 on the three-way moneyline, while Turkey is +260. The draw is +310.

Those odds would have looked a lot different two weeks ago, as the betting market had these two teams ranked pretty close in the group odds. Team USA was a +110 favorite to top the set, while Turkey was the second choice at +190.

Mauricio Pochettino will likely dress plenty of reserves in this match in order to give his key players a rest ahead of the Round of 32, but there will still be plenty of attacking talent on display.

We can expect to see Tim Weah, Gio Reyna, Haji Wright, and Brenden Aaronson get minutes. They may not be starters right now, but that cohort can do damage.

The defense will also likely be rotated to avoid injuries and suspension, and could be susceptible to a Turkish attack that has one of the world’s best playmakers, Arda Guler, in its ranks.

Turkey has been a disappointment in this tournament so far, but they’ve also been quite unlucky, scoring zero goals despite generating 3.53 expected goals.

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I expect both attacks to play with freedom in this environment, and that should lead to a wide-open game with plenty of scoring chances.

Enjoy the show. Bet the over. Then get ready for the Round of 32.

The Play: Over 3.5 goals (+190, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.