Army vs. Navy prediction: Odds, best bet, pick for Saturday’s clash

· New York Post

The Army-Navy Game is one of the great spectacles in college football.

There will be pageantry. There will be patriotism. But most of all, there will be old-school football, with both teams still proudly deploying the triple-option offense.

It’s the latter that makes this one of the funkiest games to handicap on the sporting calendar.

If you’re a college football bettor and have been around for more than a minute, you probably know all about the run of Unders that cashed in the annual meeting between the Cadets and Midshipmen. Sixteen in a row from 2006-21, and it took double-overtime in 2022 to break the streak.

One year later, bookmakers set the total at a ridiculous 28.5 points, and guess what happened? Army beat Navy, 17-11. Under by the hook.

Over bettors did get back to the window in 2024, thanks to a 31-13 win by Navy, but you can rest assured that the majority of punters on Saturday will be undeterred by that result

It’s become an annual rite of passage for college football handicappers to wrap their season with a bet on the Under in this storied rivalry.

There is sound logic behind the strategy. Some trends are just built on coincidence, but this one is backed up by common sense.

Not only do these two teams rank first and third (Air Force is No. 2) in rushing play percentage this season, but they also are stalwarts at grinding clock.

Army ranks No. 1 in the country in time of possession, while Navy is No. 20.

Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. Getty Images

And wouldn’t you know, these teams don’t make many mistakes — Army especially.

The Black Knights were the least-penalized team in FBS this season, and they were No. 3 overall in turnovers per game.

Navy wasn’t close to the same standard, but you can count on the Midshipmen to be on their best behavior for the most important day of the year.

On paper, neither one of these defenses grades out as a menace. Army ranks 83rd in yards per play allowed, while Navy is 112th. Not great. But, here’s the rub. These two teams are uniquely equipped to stop the other.

Most teams go years without playing against the triple-option. Not only do Army and Navy see it multiple times a year, but they practice against it every day. They know how it works, why it succeeds and how to break it down.

Betting on College Football?

This all sounds too easy. Keep it simple, stupid, and bet the Under. There’s just one problem. Bookmakers were not born yesterday.

They know all of this, too. They also know that this is the only game during the 3 p.m. window, and should generate plenty of action behind the window. That will create liability, meaning there is going to be pressure to get this one right.

Early action has come in on Blake Horvath and Navy, pushing the Midshipmen from -4.5 to -6.5, but the majority of the casual money that will show up Saturday is going in one direction: Under 38.

The opening games of the 2025 College Football Playoff:

Round 1

  • No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma on Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
  • No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M on Dec. 20 at 12 p.m. ET
  • No. 11 Tulane at No 6 Ole Miss on Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon on Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Quarterfinals

  • No. 10 Miami/No. 7 Texas A&M vs No. 2 Ohio State at Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon vs No. 4 Texas Tech on Jan. 1 at 12 p.m. ET
  • No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 1 Indiana on Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
  • No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 3 Georgia on Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET

That would easily be the lowest Over/Under on the board on a normal Saturday of college football, but it’s actually a pretty high total for this specific game.

And since bookmakers know that there will be lopsided action no matter what number they post, they can charge a premium on the Under. SP+, Bill Connelly’s well-respected power ratings model, projects the final score to be 31-25 in favor of Navy. That’s 18 points clear of the Over/Under.

That number is certainly exaggerated, since most statistical models will have trouble capturing the unique nature of this matchup, but it does drive home a point.

In situations like this, you are always going to find better value in zagging when everybody else zigs.

The Play: Over 38 (-110, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.