Missouri vs. Miami prediction: March Madness 2026 Round of 64 pick, odds, best bet Friday

· New York Post

The No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup of the West Region between Miami and Missouri is one of the Round of 64’s truest coin flips. 

Miami has been one of the nation’s biggest turnaround stories under first-year head coach Jai Lucas, jumping from a seven-win season to a third-place finish in the ACC behind a veteran, transfer-heavy roster. 

Missouri took a more winding road to get here, mixing high-end wins over teams like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida with uneven stretches, including a three-game losing streak entering the tournament. 

The Tigers gain a geographic edge, having already played a game at Enterprise Center in St. Louis despite being 1.5-point underdogs. 

Missouri vs. Miami prediction, odds

The biggest commonality between these two is that they rely heavily on interior scoring.

Miami ranks only behind Florida and Gonzaga in points in the paint per game. Its identity is built around physicality, anchored by Malik Reneau and his 18.8 points and 6.6 rebounds average. Alongside Ernest Udeh Jr., this tandem makes for one of the most productive frontcourts in the field. 

Mizzou also leans on its size in the frontcourt with multiple rotation players at 6-foot-9 or taller, including Mark Mitchell, Trent Pierce, and Shawn Phillips Jr., all looking to finish over defenders and control space near the basket. This overlap could be critical to the pace of this game as possessions stretch themselves out.

Miami forward Malik Reneau (5) drives against Louisville guard J’vonne Hadley during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament in Charlotte, N.C. on March 12, 2026. AP

Neither team excels in Torvik’s Adjusted Tempo rating; both rank well outside the top 100.

That said, neither side is built to produce high perimeter volume. Missouri averages 20.5 3-point attempts and Miami just 18.9.

In the free-throw department, Missouri is shooting 69 percent from the line this year — the lowest mark amongst SEC teams. Miami converts at a 68.5 percent clip.

Both teams get to the line frequently as Missouri averages 24.2 attempts per game while Miami 22.4, but it’s this inefficiency that causes added empty possessions. 

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In the Tigers’ three-game losing streak, turnovers have been a problem, with nearly 15 per game. Miami, meanwhile, has several ball-hounding guards who have forced 12.7 turnovers. 

But the Hurricanes don’t necessarily produce big when faced with slower, more physical matchups — just look at their 62-point night against Virginia in the ACC Tournament last week. 

It’s a pick’em game in a tournament setting. I’m looking for a halfcourt-heavy ball game rather than a transition one.

THE PLAY: Under 147.5 (-110, Fanatics)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.