Don’t fall for this underdog story during Saturday’s college football action

· New York Post

Since its inception, college football has always been inefficient. Frankly, it has never once crowned a true national champion. But that is both the sport’s frustration and beauty. The passionate discussions surrounding rankings, computers and postseason berths contribute to its popularity.

And that inefficiency has magnified with recent realignment. Conferences now have between 16 and 18 schools but each faces only face about nine of them in a 12-game schedule that often includes non-conference cupcakes. This unbalanced schedule leaves us without clarity. Nevertheless, sports bettors ignore the heated arguments and lean into the disarray, searching for money-making opportunities — such as this Saturday night at Yankee Stadium.

Sixth-ranked Notre Dame faces No. 19 Army in a showdown that is drawing attention for all the right reasons. The undefeated Black Knights are looking to become the first service academy to start 10-0 since 1985. They’ve also lost 28 straight against top-10 schools, with the last win coming in 1963. Plus, Army has lost 15 straight meetings, last beating the Irish in 1958.

Nevertheless, while all signs point to this being a special Army squad that could conceivably make the playoff despite ignoring NIL and transfer portals, the betting odds and advanced metrics comfortably favor the blue blood. Notre Dame is a 14-point favorite, while the Black Knights are only expected to muster about 15 total points.

That’s because Army has a flimsy resume, despite being undefeated and the nation’s only school to win every game by double digits. The Black Knights have not faced a ranked opponent and their strength of schedule sits among the 10 worst in all of FBS.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has dominated opponents since losing to Northern Illinois two months ago. The Irish have covered five straight games, and those point spreads ranged from 13.5 to 25. Spearheading this charge is a stingy defense allowing 11.4 points per game and ranking in the top 10 in most categories.

Head coach Jeff Monken celebrates with his players after Army’s 14-3 win over North Texas. Danny Wild-Imagn Images

“It’s always a problem to play armed forces teams when they’re good. They’re tough physically and mentally so when they’re good, they have even more elite athletes and football players,” DraftKings race and sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Only Players. “This is probably a tough game for Notre Dame and they need to be aware.”

This point spread has toggled between 14 and 16 all week, because of separate professional betting groups wagering on each team, according to my sources. Thus, the market has moved each time since these groups are so respected and influential.

Nevertheless, based on my intel, I anticipate the spread will dip below 14 at some point and could even settle at 13.5 points by kickoff. Obviously not all half-points are created equal in sports betting. Given Army’s knack for shortening games with time-consuming, run-heavy drives, 14 is an extremely key number.

Betting on College Football?

Many Irish backers want to highlight the 51-14 beatdown of then-undefeated Navy on Oct. 26. Despite the similar offenses, I am dismissing that comparison. The Middies committed six turnovers — with most unforced — and I just chalk it up to an outlier result. Plus, Army is better than Navy.

I do think the Irish defense will stymie Army’s offense and could win by a solid margin. But head coach Jeff Monken is a wizard, and there is a scenario where he manages the game effectively and keeps the Black Knights within striking distance.

If forced to pick a side, I would lay the points with the Irish. Nevertheless, my preferred wager is the under of Army’s team total of 15.5 points. Obviously I love the underdog story but I think Army is overmatched in the trenches and won’t move the ball much. Notre Dame’s defense is for real.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.