Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for the 2025 Egg Bowl

The Egg Bowl, the annual battle between Mississippi State and Ole Miss, is one of college football’s best rivalries, but the results have been lopsided as of late.

The Rebels have won four of the last five iterations of the battle for bragging rights in the Magnolia State, and it’s been six years since the Bulldogs beat the Rebs in Starkville.

That said, this year’s version of Mississippi State is miles better than what we’ve seen in recent seasons.

Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs are just 5-6, but that’s a huge step forward after going 2-10 in 2024.

An upset win for Hail State would be a double-whammy.

Not only would it send the Bulldogs to a bowl game for the first time since 2022, but it would also almost certainly eliminate Ole Miss from the College Football Playoff.

It’s win-and-in for the Rebels on Black Friday.

Oh, there’s also the whole Lane Kiffin situation. Ole Miss said an announcement on whether or not Kiffin is staying for 2026 is coming the day after the Egg Bowl.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds, prediction

Surprising seasons come in all shapes and sizes. Sometimes they are impossible to ignore. Other times, an encouraging campaign can fly under the radar.

Mississippi State’s performance in 2025 falls under the latter.

The Bulldogs may not be the sexiest team to talk about in the SEC, but they should be getting more praise for the season they’ve put together.

Projected to be a doormat in the nation’s toughest conference in 2025, the Bulldogs more than doubled their win total from last season and are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) through 11 games.

Their 1-6 record in SEC play also sells them short, as they lost to Florida by two points, and took Tennessee and Texas to overtime. A couple of better bounces and Mississippi State could be 8-3.

Ole Miss has had much better luck in close contests.

The Rebels went 5-1 in games decided by one possession, and they were taken to the wire by plenty of teams that are on the same level, or worse, than Mississippi State.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida and Washington State all gave Ole Miss a scare in 2025.

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There is a decent gap between these two teams, and Ole Miss is right to be favored on the road, but this looks like a classic case where both combatants are being misrepresented by their W-L record.

Mississippi State is not your typical 5-6 team, while Ole Miss is being flattered by its 10-1 ledger.

The Cowbells will be ringing all night in Starkville. Don’t be afraid to play the upset.

The Play: Mississippi State (+260, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.