Oklahoma vs. Alabama prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for College Football Playoff Round 1

· New York Post

Third time’s a charm, and after beating No. 9 Alabama twice in the last year, No. 8 Oklahoma needs the hat trick to advance past the first round of the College Football Playoff.

This is a narrative that always fuels the perception of one side being due for the win, especially in a pick’em.

It’s a pair of SEC schools that control the line of scrimmage with defensive pressure, so where is the edge?

Here’s what we can say about Alabama: They command a high-volume aerial attack led by Ty Simpson, who nearly doubled Oklahoma’s output in the Nov. 15 meeting. They’re certainly not going to fix what isn’t broken on Friday, but that performance came with some important caveats. 

Simpson benefited from one of Oklahoma’s lowest pressure rates of the season, an approach I don’t expect to repeat with the No. 3 overall program in defensive SP+ rating. The Sooners’ secondary is far more effective when pressure is present, yielding just 4.4 yards per attempt with pressure in contrast to 7.3 without it. 

Oklahoma vs. Alabama odds, prediction

Alabama’s attack leans on dropbacks, which help Simpson achieve early-down efficiency — Kalen DeBoer wants to live in second-and-5, stay on schedule and let Simpson throw on rhythm, but this is a Sooners front that ranks third overall in opponent EPA per play and second in sack rate.

The Sooners caused Simpson all kinds of disruption in the first meeting — they sacked him four times, forced three fumbles and notched one interception. 

If the passing game is jeopardized, Deboer must look to a ground game that has underperformed all year. Crimson Tide rushers rank just No. 31 in yards before contact, a mark that spells big-time trouble against the Sooners, who get to runners quicker than any program in college football. 

Ty Simpson #15 of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts after their 27-20 win over the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Auburn, Alabama. Getty Images

Then there’s the Crimson Tide’s leading rusher, Jam Miller, who is nursing his way through a leg injury.

The senior has topped 100 yards once, and that happened in the first week of October. He greets a front that allows only 2.3 yards per carry — the lowest in the country.

When the Sooners have the ball, they don’t need to be explosive to win, and God knows they haven’t been. Oklahoma has scored 26.4 points a game, the fewest of any 10-win team in FBS. The Sooners lack a consistent run game themselves, and John Mateer isn’t the most dangerous deep-ball threat.

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Oklahoma compensates by attacking underneath the defense’s primary coverage. 

But in such a tight matchup, the Sooners’ red-zone perfection is where the score can likely gravitate toward. Oklahoma has converted all 32 times it has visited inside the 20, the only program to remain flawless. 

The opening games of the 2025 College Football Playoff:

Round 1

  • No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma on Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
  • No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M on Dec. 20 at 12 p.m. ET
  • No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss on Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon on Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Quarterfinals

  • No. 10 Miami/No. 7 Texas A&M vs No. 2 Ohio State at Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon vs No. 4 Texas Tech on Jan. 1 at 12 p.m. ET
  • No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 1 Indiana on Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
  • No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 3 Georgia on Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET

A lot of that is thanks to Mateer’s mobility. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in every must-win game this season, including Michigan, Tennessee and Alabama.

It’s not to say Mateer is better than Simpson, though, in what projects, to be a grind-it-out game, Mateer’s profile should have the stronger influence. 

BET: Oklahoma moneyline (-115, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.