Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for College Football Playoff clash Saturday

· New York Post

The timing of Saturday’s College Football Playoff showdown between Miami and Texas A&M makes this quite an adventure for handicappers.

The Aggies (11-1, 7-1 SEC) were one of the most impressive teams for the first 13 weeks of the season, but a loss at home to Texas seemed to change that narrative a bit.

Fair or not, that’s how things work in college football.

And the fact that the Aggies drew Miami, which comes into Round 1 riding plenty of momentum after winning its last four games to sway the selection committee to punch its ticket, sets us up with an interesting question: Is recency bias impacting this spread?

Texas A&M is just a three-point favorite, signaling that the market views these two teams as equals on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff: Miami vs. Texas A&M odds, prediction

There are a lot of metrics that paint this contest as a coin flip, at least from an on-field perspective.

According to SP+, Bill Connelly’s well-respected power ratings model, Texas A&M is the eighth-best team in the country, and Miami is No. 9. That same system paints the Aggies as the seventh-best offense and 21st-best defense, while tagging the Canes at No. 16 on offense, but No. 10 on defense.

In other words, an elite offense will take on an elite defense when the Aggies have the ball. And a very good offense will take on a very good defense when the Canes are in control.

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal. AP

Where things start to separate is when you size up the intangibles.

The biggest mismatch in this game likely won’t be on the field, but on the sidelines.

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Miami head coach Mario Cristobal did a decent job keeping his team focused after losses to Louisville and SMU seemed to end its season, but he has a reputation for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, especially in big games.

Mike Elko hasn’t had a chance to prove himself in these spots yet, but he did guide the Aggies to a one-los season record against the 18th-hardest schedule in the country.

What’s more is that Texas A&M had to come up huge in a few tight games, including against Notre Dame, South Carolina, Auburn and Arkansas.

The opening games of the 2025 College Football Playoff:

Round 1

  • No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma on Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
  • No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M on Dec. 20 at 12 p.m. ET
  • No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss on Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon on Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Quarterfinals

  • No. 10 Miami/No. 7 Texas A&M vs No. 2 Ohio State at Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon vs No. 4 Texas Tech on Jan. 1 at 12 p.m. ET
  • No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 1 Indiana on Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
  • No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 3 Georgia on Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET

The Aggies were able to remain composed in high-pressure moments and hostile environments.

The same can’t be said of Cristobal or his quarterback, Carson Beck.

The former Georgia signal-caller has thrown 22 interceptions over the last two seasons, which could allow the Aggies to flip this game at any moment.

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Beck’s counterpart, Marcel Reed, also has some mistakes in him, but his dual-threat ability should provide Miami with more questions to answer than Beck will for the Aggies.

The numbers may suggest that this game is pretty close to a coin flip, but it’s hard to look past the edge that Texas A&M should have on the sidelines and potentially at quarterback.

The Play: Texas A&M -3 (-115, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.