Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction: Patrick Mahomes leads KC to victory in Vegas

· New York Post

The most interesting NFL game of the week goes down in Las Vegas.

The Chiefs and Raiders both enter Week 4 at 3-0 and have impressed every step of the way. Like two prized fighters meeting on the strip for a huge boxing match, someone’s O has to go this week.

Sportsbooks list the Chiefs as 4.5-point road favorites for Sunday’s matchup, but the public is split on which side will cover.

Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction, best bet

Taking a flier on Kirk Cousins turned out to be a stroke of genius for the Raiders. With Cousins and head coach Klint Kubiak running the offense, the Raiders are averaging 29.3 points per game this season, tied with the Chiefs and Cowboys for sixth-most in the NFL.

Adding tight end Brock Bowers back into the mix last week gave a glimpse of the true potential of their offense. Cousins targeted Bowers early and often, and the standout receiver already has the second-most receiving yards on the team after one game.

The defense has been impressive, too. The Raiders rank 11th in yards allowed per game and first in takeaways with five fumble recoveries and four interceptions.

Their pass rush has registered the fourth-most sacks and the second-highest pressure rate (36.3 percent) despite sitting near the bottom of the league in blitz percentage (19.5 percent).

Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby and Taron Johnson (3) celebrate after Crosby recovered a fumble during the second half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans, Monday, Sept. 28, 2026. AP Photo/Ella Hall

The combination of a steady offense and a defense that can get to the quarterback without needing extra players to generate pressure makes this a fascinating matchup for the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes needed one game to find his form, and he’s on pace to be more accurate and effective than he’s ever been in his career. Against normal pressure, Mahomes is completing 67.6 percent of his passes. Against the blitz, that number jumps to 70.8 percent.

The addition of a running game makes him even more dangerous because defenses can’t take away both threats at the same time. The Chiefs’ running game can also be the difference maker by keeping Cousins and the Raiders offense off the field.

Betting on the NFL?

I do believe this Raiders team is actually as good as they’ve shown through three weeks, but the Chiefs are, too. The Raiders will need to get stops and force turnovers the way they did in the second half against the Saints in Week 2 to flip this game in their favor. Barring another fluke play like a pass going off Rashee Rice’s hands for an interception, it doesn’t seem like Mahomes will give the Raiders too many opportunities.

I’ll bet on the Chiefs to prevail on the road and cover this number in Vegas.

The Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-108, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.