Giants vs. Texans prediction, best bets: J.J. McCarthy provides upside as double-digit Week 7 underdog

· New York Post

J.J. McCarthy’s bench magic almost dug the Giants out of a deep hole, and now he’ll get his shot to start Sunday against the Texans. 

The former 10th overall pick by Minnesota, who was traded to Big Blue on Sept. 28, earned another look after marching the Giants back from a 31-10 deficit in last week’s 34-27 loss to the Saints. 

After all, McCarthy’s 243 yards set an NFL record for the most within 11 minutes. 

The betting market, however, needs to see more, as it seemingly hasn’t forgotten McCarthy’s dismal last season with the Vikings.

The Giants, who lead a woeful NFC East at 3-2-1, head to Houston as 10.5-point underdogs.

Giants vs. Texans prediction, best bet

The Texans’ surging passing game has flipped their 0-4 season on its head.

C.J. Stroud has suddenly found his confidence, fresh off of AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors via a 312-yard, three-touchdown stat line that powered Houston past Jacksonville.

Jaylin Noel has emerged as a deep threat all, while the return of Tank Dell and acquisition of Marvin Harrison Jr. gives a wealth of options in addition to star Nico Collins. 

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud celebrates after running the ball for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. AP Photo/John Amis

Without David Montgomery, Houston will lean heavily on Stroud, potentially forcing the Giants to air it out with their own backfield in flux.

The Giants’ pass defense has been a pleasant surprise. It has limited quarterbacks to top-five numbers in both passing yards allowed per game and per attempt. 

On the other side of the ball, the Texans have experienced significant regression since relying on their defense to win them the AFC South two of the last three years. 

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The pass rush isn’t the problem. Will Anderson Jr. is carrying much of the load with the help of Danielle Hunter, a pair that has combined for 14 sacks and 60 pressures, and that will give Big Blue’s depleted offensive line a challenge.

The Texans are tied for third in sacks (18) and that’s directly fed into a strong run defense, also ranking third in yards allowed per game (83.0).

The Texans have allowed 24 passing plays of at least 20 yards, which is the second-most in the NFL.

Throughout the first four games, this was a costly issue as the defense surrendered game-winning or go-ahead drives in several tight matchups.

Malik Nabers is primed to have his way here.

He and McCarthy connected for 95 yards in the one quarter alone, and he’s commanded 35 targets over the past two games for 23 receptions, 286 yards and a touchdown.

In contrast to Jameis Winston, McCarthy — while notedly reckless with his throws — adds clear upside to the passing game. With the added benefit of his scrambling ability, the Giants can find ways to sustain drives.

THE PLAY: Giants +10.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.