Team USA vs. Canada prediction: WBC odds, picks, best bet Friday

Things got quite messy for Team USA at the end of pool play, but all that matters now is that they’re into the quarterfinals of the World Baseball Classic.

Canada, which topped Pool A with an impressive 3-1 record, awaits the Americans in Friday’s second quarterfinal.

The betting market, however, isn’t giving the Maple Leafs much of a chance against the Stars and Stripes.

Despite their shocker last time out for the Americans against Italy, Team USA is a prohibitive -900 favorite to beat Canada at Daikin Park on Friday night.

That price isn’t too far off from where the Yanks closed against Italy in their last outing. And we all know how that wound up.

Can Canada pull the stunner Friday night?

Team USA vs. Canada odds, picks

No matter the sport, international tournaments will always provide surprises. Things change when you represent your country. Underdogs get inspired, while favorites feel the added pressure.

A few weeks ago, these two countries duked it out on the ice at the Olympics, and it was the Americans who played the role of pesky underdog (albeit a much shorter one) and took home the gold medal.

The loss caused Hockey Canada to be examined under a microscope, with every decision coming under question. In reality, Canada lost that game because sports are unpredictable, and luck plays a massive role, especially in one-game samples.

But Canada’s path to success Friday night isn’t solely reliant on getting lucky. It will help to get the bounces, sure, but there’s plenty of talent on this roster, and the Maple Leafs will send a bona fide Major League starter, Michael Soroka, to the mound opposite Team USA’s Logan Webb.

Soroka is the B-side of his matchup with Webb, but he’s got the upside to keep a lid on this potent Team USA lineup. Shutting the Yanks down completely is not likely, but he can give Canada a chance to hang around, which is what you’re asking for from your starter in this situation.

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If Soroka can do that, the Americans will feel plenty of pressure, and Canada has the bats in its lineup to make Team USA pay.

Josh and Bo Naylor can wreck a game, Tyler O’Neill is always a swing away from doing the same and the Canadians are getting plenty out of role players Abraham Toro and Owen Caissie in this tournament.

It’s not the Murderers’ Row that the Americans boast, but it’s a serviceable unit that can punish you if they’re not put away.

The odds are telling us that Team USA is very likely to win this game, but given what we’ve seen from the Americans — and Canadians — in this tournament, it’s hard to look away from the massive price on Canada on Friday night.

The Play: Canada (+590, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.