2025 College Football Playoff predictions: Oklahoma in prime Cinderella position

It seems like the college football world is in agreement that the upcoming 12-team College Football Playoff is essentially a two-horse race between Ohio State and Indiana.

Maybe red-hot Georgia is able to claw its way in there, but most of the signals are pointing to a rematch of the Big Ten Championship, which finished 13-10 in favor of the Hoosiers, the only undefeated team in the country. 

Oddsmakers at FanDuel are certainly leaning in that direction. Ohio State is the betting favorite to win the national championship at +190, with Indiana right behind the Buckeyes at +320.

Georgia is the third choice at +600, just ahead of Oregon (+800) and Texas Tech (+850). 

The Ducks are the only team in this cohort that doesn’t have a bye into the quarterfinals, but a Round 1 matchup with James Madison isn’t expected to be an issue for Oregon. The Ducks are three-score favorites over the Dukes at home on Saturday night.

James Madison is 750/1 to win the tournament, tied with Tulane for the longest odds. The Dukes and Green Wave are both in interesting situations, with their respective head coaches taking part in the College Football Playoff before leaving for new posts in 2026. 

That isn’t the situation for Ole Miss, which takes on Tulane in Round 1. The Rebels watched Lane Kiffin abandon ship after the regular season, with his former defensive coordinator, Pete Golding, taking over on a permanent basis starting this weekend.

Ole Miss is a huge favorite in Round 1, and the Rebels going on a revenge tour after the Kiffin saga is a sexy narrative, but 22/1 feels a little bit short for a team that is staring down Georgia and likely Ohio State in the next two rounds.

There are three other teams in the same range as Ole Miss. Texas A&M is slightly ahead of the Rebels at 18/1, while Alabama and Miami are just behind them at 25/1 and 27/1, respectively.

The Aggies are 3.5-point favorites over the Hurricanes in College Station on Saturday, a price that tells us that these two teams would be a pick’em at a neutral venue. 

The opening games of the 2025 College Football Playoff:

Round 1

• No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma on Dec. 19 at 8 p.m. ET
• No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M on Dec. 20 at 12 p.m. ET
• No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss on Dec. 20 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon on Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Quarterfinals

• No. 10 Miami/No. 7 Texas A&M vs No. 2 Ohio State at Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon vs No. 4 Texas Tech on Jan. 1 at 12 p.m. ET
• No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 1 Indiana on Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET
• No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 3 Georgia on Jan. 1 at 8 p.m. ET

The reward for winning this coin flip? A date with Ohio State. No thanks at these prices.

That leaves us with Alabama and Oklahoma. You may recall that these two teams met a few weeks ago, with the Sooners coming out on top in Tuscaloosa. That game started a late-season spiral for the Tide, who were last seen getting outclassed by Georgia in the SEC Championship.

The Sooners, meanwhile, finished the campaign with four wins on the spin, taking out Tennessee, Missouri, and LSU on either side of the win in Alabama.

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You’d think that this would be enough to make the Sooners a home favorite on Friday night, but it’s Alabama sitting at -1.5. Funky.

Not only is that price a bit weird, but the Sooners holding at 50/1 to win the College Football Playoff also seems peculiar. It’s understandable that Ole Miss would be a shorter price than Oklahoma because the Rebels have a much easier Round 1 opponent, but it’s nuts that Texas A&M, Miami, and Alabama are so far ahead of the Sooners.

Oklahoma’s path is comparable, if not easier, than Texas A&M and Miami, and the Sooners have as much potential to punch above their weight thanks to an elite defense.

Oklahoma finished the season as the third-best defense according to SP+, and it ranks sixth in yards per play (4.1), seventh in points allowed (14.9), and second in sack percentage (10.05). The Sooners put up those numbers against the 12th-hardest schedule in college football. They’re prepared for this gauntlet.

Perhaps Oklahoma falls short against Alabama, or is outclassed in the later rounds, but as things sit right now, it’s the Sooners who stand out as the best value on the board.

THE PLAY: Oklahoma to win the CFP (50/1, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.