Why betting on Dodgers completing historic World Series 3-peat is a fool’s errand

SAN FRANCISCO – This time, the odds are against them.

The Dodgers will enter the playoffs as the World Series favorites again this year in the sense that there isn’t another team in the field that is more likely to win the World Series.

But if the choice is between the Dodgers and the other teams in the 12-team field, the smart money has to be the field.

Never mind what could go wrong for the Dodgers. Think about what has to go right for the 100-win team, and consider the likelihood of that happening – not just in the National League Division Series but also in the two more rounds after that.

Something is bound to go wrong.

Something is bound to stop them from becoming the fifth team in history to win three consecutive World Series championships.

This is less about the opposition and more about who the Dodgers are at this stage – health-wise, age-wise, personnel-wise.

In each of the last two years, the Dodgers carried major handicaps into the postseason. Last season, they didn’t have a reliable bullpen. The season before that, they didn’t have much of a starting rotation. In those instances, they were able to overcome their problems.

This time around, the Dodgers are dealing with an issue of an entire different magnitude. 

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are hurting.

Manager Dave Roberts acknowledged Freeman is “compromised” by his aching right knee. Roberts said he hasn’t heard about anything being physically wrong with Ohtani, but the eye test indicates otherwise. 

Ohtani was 2 for 12 with five strikeouts in the season-ending three-game series against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. In the last two games, he didn’t take any dry swings when he was on deck. Ohtani was on the 15-day injured list earlier this month because of discomfort in his right arm.

The four-time Most Valuable Player was at least able to get his bat on the ball in a 5-1 victory over the Giants on Sunday. His three at-bats produced three-grounders, one of which reached the outfield because the San Francisco Giants third baseman Marcelo Mayer was shifted toward the middle of the infield. 

The Ichiro-fication of Ohtani wasn’t a positive development for the Dodgers, who have relied on him to be a source of power. The problem could be magnified by the lack of pop from Freeman, who homered just once in his last 66 games.

The Dodgers were able to mask their shortcomings in each of their last two World Series runs, with their bullpen picking up the innings the rotation couldn’t give them in 2024 and the starters making relief appearances to limit the bullpen’s exposure in 2025.

Making up for declining production of Ohtani and Freeman will be substantially more difficult. A collective effort will be required, involving the likes of Mookie Betts and Andy Pages, Max Muncy and Kiké Hernández, Teoscar Hernández and Kyle Tucker.

When the Dodgers were slumping in July or August, this would have looked impossible. In the wake of a September in which the Dodgers won 18 of 25 games, it feels a little less so.

“I think we just played better baseball at the end,” Freeman said. “That’s what you want going into the postseason. Guys started to swing a lot better.”

Here’s the caveat: The schedule was soft in September.

Really soft.

The Dodgers played only one team with a winning record in the final month of the regular season, the San Diego Padres, and they dropped two games in their three-game series against them last week.

In other words, the increased production in recent weeks could have been a mirage. 

And even if that wasn’t the case, the Dodgers will almost certainly face better pitching in the playoffs, starting in their NL Division Series against either the Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies.

“Hitting is hard, especially in the playoffs,” Betts said. “You’re facing all the best arms. Getting three, four, five hits in an inning is not really a thing. You have to figure out a way to scratch a run across, maybe a walk, whatever it is.”

Conceivably, they can do it.

Their starting pitching will keep them in every game they play. Their bullpen has started to come together. And many of their hitters have signature October moments on their resumes.

But the odds are against them.