NFL betting: Early lines give too much credit to Steelers, Browns

If you needed an example of how every week in the NFL is different, Week 2 provided exactly that.

The Browns beat the Buccaneers, the Bears went from scoring 59 points to managing just a field goal, and the Ravens went from scoring 41 points to losing a game in which 41 total points were scored.

Oh, and the injuries. My goodness, there were some big ones.

You’re also going to hear a lot about teams starting 0-3, how difficult it is for them to make the playoffs and how desperate they are. While the numbers regarding 0-3 teams are meaningful, the rest is noise.

Teams want to win every game. Don’t fall victim to the talking heads, narratives and conjecture. Handicap what you’ve seen, what the statistics tell you and where the number leads you. And these lines are courtesy of Circa Sportsbook.

Bengals (-3½, 43½) at Steelers

The Bengals Kool-Aid is flying off the shelves. The Bengals are 2-0, their defense looked spectacular against the Texans and now they have a good chance to start 3-0.

The Steelers looked awful against the Patriots. Combine that with a Week 1 win over the hapless Falcons by a touchdown, and you can see why the court of public opinion is distancing itself from this Pittsburgh team. Some sportsbooks were even dealing additional juice on the 3½ as of Sunday night. This line was under a field goal in the look-ahead market but has rightly been adjusted.

Panthers (-3, 40½) at Browns

All of a sudden, this game became much more interesting. After giving up a million points and yards to the Bears, the Panthers buckled down and played a complete game in a 34-3 victory over the Falcons.

Wins against the Falcons aren’t viewed all that highly right now, but going from allowing 59 points to giving up three is a significant turnaround. Had the Browns stunk up the joint against the Buccaneers as they did against the Jaguars, this line would be higher. Instead, Cleveland had a dramatic week-to-week turnaround to improve to 1-1.

I still don’t know what kind of reaction Deshaun Watson will receive at home — probably not a good one — but the Browns looked better and that was quite a sight. The look-ahead number was 2½, and some of those lines remain, but the number is mostly 3.

Chargers at Bills (-7, 50½)

My guess is that one of two things will happen: Either the Bills will blow out the Chargers, or Los Angeles will find a way to win outright. That’s just how the scriptwriters seem to plan things in this league.

The Chargers will receive the Texans treatment this week because they also are 0-2. It’s much different, though, to have lost to the Cardinals and Raiders instead of the Bills and Bengals. Nevertheless, all the “cornered rat” and “must-win” sentiments will be out there.

But the Bills are playing on extra rest and the Chargers have an early kickoff. There’s a reason this line moved from 4½ in the look-ahead market to 7 at most sportsbooks.

Cardinals at 49ers (-8½, 48½)

It turns out the Cardinals aren’t quite the layup most people thought they would be, but they’re still an uncontested jumper from the elbow at best.

The 49ers surely won’t complain, given that they just improved to 2-0 with a victory over the Dolphins. They are heavily favored to move to 3-0, and their head-to-head victory over the Rams should provide a reason not to overlook Arizona. The total moved up about a point, but the spread is about where it was on the look-ahead line.

Raiders at Saints (-3, 44)

The Saints and Raiders both picked up impressive victories as underdogs in Week 2. New Orleans can say more about its victory because the Ravens didn’t lose to the Cardinals in Week 1, but still.

Both teams are ahead of where they were projected to be, especially the 2-0 Raiders. Depending on the sportsbook and its expectation for how this line will move, the number is either Saints -3 or Saints -3½ at reduced juice.

The total also moved down after strong defensive performances by both teams. There wasn’t much movement on the spread because the two upset victories seemed to cancel each other out.