College football betting: Ole Miss, Purdue offer safe dates

Blind dates can be disastrous. You have heard good things and have an idea of what you’re getting into, but you don’t really know until you experience it and see everything.

The first two or three weeks of a football season can be similar to a first date. The goal each year is to avoid disaster early, evaluate teams as thoroughly as possible and find a winning rhythm as a handicapper. Winning is never easy, but we know a lot more about these teams now.

Here are my college football best bets for Week 3:

LSU (-3) at Mississippi

Breakups are never easy. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned — but in this case, it’s a scorned fan base. Ole Miss fans are angry as hell and want revenge on Lane Kiffin for ditching the Rebels before the playoff and taking the LSU coaching job. Kiffin will walk into the most hostile atmosphere imaginable Saturday night in Oxford, and you can bet he loves the attention and the hate. The drama Kiffin creates is annoying, but this top-10 matchup is undeniably attractive.

In terms of gamesmanship, Kiffin made the first move Wednesday by listing quarterback Sam Leavitt as doubtful on the injury report. It was a surprising development that triggered an immediate line move from Tigers -3 to -1.5. Leavitt was upgraded to questionable Thursday, when the line moved back to a field goal. Leavitt, a transfer from Arizona State with a history of injuries, has been shaky and threw three interceptions in the first half against Louisiana Tech last week.

The LSU defense has been rock solid, and Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss is arguably the best quarterback in the country at this point, so something has to give. Chambliss has completed 71 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception. He escapes pressure, makes dynamic plays and has an outstanding supporting cast featuring running back Kewan Lacy and receiver Deuce Alexander. Chambliss passed for 336 yards as the Rebels rolled up 488 yards of offense in a 41-38 victory over Louisville on Sept. 6.

The Ole Miss defense could be a weakness, and Kiffin has the coaching edge, so I’m not going to argue that the wrong team is favored. But when the superior quarterback is a home underdog in an insane environment, I’ll take my chances and the points. If it comes down to a kick, the Rebels’ Lucas Carneiro has a lethal long-range leg.

Best bet: Mississippi +3

BYU (-18) at Colorado State

My high preseason rating of BYU appears justified — it’s early, of course, and we’ll find out a lot more when Notre Dame visits Provo on Oct. 17 — but this could be a tricky road trip against a well-coached underdog. The Cougars do not feature a quick-strike offense, instead grinding it out with quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin. Bachmeier accounted for four touchdowns in a 28-17 comeback victory over Arizona.

The opposing quarterback, Hauss Hejny, could make this game interesting. For those who have not seen him, Hejny is a serious dual-threat talent. He has passed for 539 yards and nine touchdowns while rushing for 124 yards and one score in victories over Wyoming and Southern Utah. The Rams, averaging 46.5 points per game, look like a team on the rise under coach Jim Mora. BYU will likely grind out a win by 10 to 14 points.

Best bet: Colorado State +18

Purdue at UCLA (-14)

New coach Bob Chesney was probably my favorite offseason hire, and I backed the Bruins in their first two wins against California and San Diego State. UCLA is for real, but quarterback Nico Iamaleava has work to do. He does not have a touchdown pass and threw an interception in the end zone against the Aztecs.

Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne is playing at a higher level. Browne has completed 77.5 percent of his passes for 646 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in two games. He is complemented by spectacular running back Fame Ijeboi, who has 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Purdue is showing gradual improvement under second-year coach Barry Odom, but his defense still has a long way to go. Iamaleava will throw his first touchdown pass, and UCLA running backs Wayne Knight, who has six touchdowns, and Anthony Woods will run all over Odom’s defense in what should be a high-scoring game at the Rose Bowl.

Best bets: Purdue +14 and over 51.5