NFL betting: Cousins, Lawrence were not as impressive as they seemed

With the fourth pick in the 2018 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns selected Denzel Ward, a cornerback from Ohio State. With the seventh pick, the Buffalo Bills took Josh Allen, a quarterback from Wyoming. It’s timely to reflect on that draft because Allen is currently the NFL’s best player, and he could have changed the course of the Cleveland Clowns franchise.

The Browns picked Baker Mayfield, a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from Oklahoma, No. 1 overall, so they twice passed on Allen. I approved of the Mayfield pick at the time, but Cleveland eventually screwed up that situation, too. Mayfield will lead the Buccaneers against the Browns on Sunday in a revenge game for him and a big game for the thousands of Circa Survivor contestants who will be banking on Tampa Bay and fading Cleveland.

Allen was lucky to avoid being drafted by the Browns. The Giants, Jets, Broncos and Colts also passed on Allen, who accounted for five touchdowns — passing for three and running for two — as the Bills kicked off Week 2 on Thursday by blasting the Lions 41-31. Allen is the early leader in the MVP race, an award he won in 2024.

Here are my best bets for Sunday’s games:

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

Kirk Cousins won his first start for Las Vegas, but the veteran quarterback did not remind anyone of Raiders greats Ken “Snake” Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Rich Gannon or Daryle “The Mad Bomber” Lamonica.

Cousins passed for 160 yards and three touchdowns, yet 20 of his 21 completions were short throws, and he tossed two interceptions. The Raiders did run the ball effectively, with Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington combining for 143 yards, while star tight end Brock Bowers stood on the sideline with a knee injury.

Bowers has returned to practice, but he’s listed as doubtful, leaving Cousins without what would be his top target.

Most of the blame for the Chargers’ season-opening flop against the Cardinals falls on coach Jim Harbaugh, who wasted the preseason by rarely playing quarterback Justin Herbert and the other starters. Herbert took three sacks and threw an interception, often facing pressure up the middle as the interior offensive line broke down.

The Chargers totaled 268 yards and 14 points on 10 drives against an Arizona defense that was the league’s worst late last season. The Los Angeles defense allowed 393 yards and failed to force a turnover as the Cardinals dominated time of possession, keeping the ball for more than 37 minutes.

The Chargers were whipped by the Cardinals, and there was nothing fluky about it. The Raiders handled the Dolphins, who are a dumpster fire, so that result was no big deal. Harbaugh and Herbert could bounce back in this spot, but they can’t be trusted laying more than three points. It doesn’t seem like an overreaction to predict the Chargers are headed for a losing season.

For what it’s worth, the Chargers don’t get much credit for home-field advantage in this matchup because Raiders fans fill most of SoFi Stadium. I bet the Raiders +7 early in the week and hoped Bowers would be back. I’m still fine with the bet because the Chargers are a mess.

Best bet: Raiders +6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

The Browns, Dolphins and Titans are the NFL’s worst teams, so don’t get swept away by the Trevor Lawrence hype just yet. Lawrence passed for four touchdowns and barely broke a sweat or messed up his hair in Jacksonville’s 34-10 victory over Cleveland. Let’s see what Lawrence does against a Denver defense that was embarrassed Monday night in Kansas City.

Of all the good teams that looked bad in Week 1 — a group that includes the Rams, Chargers, Texans, Patriots and Cowboys — the Broncos might have the best chance to bounce back. Denver ranked No. 3 in scoring defense last season, and that defense was put in compromising positions against the Chiefs while quarterback Bo Nix played like a bozo.

Nix needs to be much better.

Best bet: Broncos -2.5

Five more plays for Sunday

Patriots -5 vs Steelers

Falcons +3 vs Panthers

Browns +8.5 at Buccaneers

Texans -2.5 vs Bengals

Colts +6.5 at Chiefs